DHB Collaborative Research: Human Decision Making Dynamics and it's Impact on Infrastructure Systems

现代社会经济体系在很大程度上依赖于通信和配电网络基础设施。当这些基础设施脆弱时，整个社会也是如此。社会基础设施系统和工程基础设施系统本身都是复杂的，由于系统是相互连接(耦合)的，因此组合系统更加复杂。这种复杂性很大程度上源于人类。基础设施故障通常主要作为技术工程问题来研究，缺少人的因素。随着耦合程度的增加和压力的增加，了解这些耦合系统的动力学和脆弱性变得更加重要。随着这种情况的发生，信息流随之增加，这可能会使人的因素变得更加重要。为了促进对人/基础设施系统中动态的理解：1.我们将研究由电力网络、通信网络组成的集成系统的动态，以及与这些其他基础设施系统的社会交互的动态模型。这将建立在先前关于单个电力传输网络、通信网络和人类决策系统的复杂系统动力学的工作的基础上。2.同时，我们将开发一个简单模型的层次结构，以表示在真实系统的观察中确定的关键人类反应和决策动力学。这些将与复杂的工程基础设施的模型相结合。3.最后，我们将开发工具来分析真实系统并量化和预测行为模式，以了解真实系统并评估我们模型的有效性。耦合系统行为作为复杂系统动力学中的一个问题，具有重要的科学意义。开发这些系统的预测模型的实际目标是补充提高对耦合系统行为的理解的科学目标，因为它们的动态对整个社会具有重大影响。基本认识的提高将有助于改进风险分析和开发业务技术，以减少基础设施受到重大破坏的风险。

Modern socioeconomic systems depend critically on communications and power distribution network infrastructures. When these infrastructures are vulnerable, so is society as a whole. Both the social and the engineered infrastructural systems are complex in their own right and since the systems are interconnected (coupled), the combined system is even more complex. Much of the complexity stems from the humans. Infrastructural failures are often studied primarily as technical engineering matters, missing the human element. Understanding the dynamics and vulnerabilities of these coupled systems is becoming more important as the degree of coupling increases and as they are put under increasing stress. As this occurs, there is a concomitant increase in the flow of information, which can make the human element even more significant.To advance understanding of the dynamics in human/infrastructure systems: 1. We will investigate the dynamics of an integrated system comprised of power networks, communication networks, and a dynamic model of social interactions with these other infrastructure systems. This will build on previous work on the complex system dynamics of the individual power transmission networks, communication networks and human decision-making systems. 2. Simultaneously, we will develop a hierarchy of simple models to represent the key human reaction and decision-making dynamics identified in the observations of the real systems. These will be coupled to models of the complex engineering infrastructure. 3. Finally we will develop tools to analyze the real systems and to quantify and predict regimes of behavior, both to understand the real systems and to assess the validity of our models. Coupled system behavior is of basic scientific interest as a problem in complex systems dynamics. Complementing the scientific goal of improving understanding of coupled system behavior is the practical goal of developing predictive models of these systems, since their dynamics have major implications for society as a whole. The improvement in basic understanding will allow for improved risk analysis as well as the development of operational techniques to reduce the risks of major disruptions to the infrastructure.