HSD: Collaborative Research: A Study in the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Institutional Innovation and Learning

在全球环境快速变化的时期，城市地区的人类社会组织和个人的复杂系统如何创造、成长、学习和变化，以应对气候变化、当地空气污染和其他环境问题的威胁？科学信息和环境意识对公众、对公共机构及其项目、对这些机构本身的影响是什么？发生的人类社会动态是什么，这些动态是否可以用创新理论和社会学习理论来描述，这些理论在解释经济表现方面是如此成功？快速变化时期非常重视负责人类健康和福利的公共机构获取、吸收和对相关知识和信息作出反应的能力，在本研究中，负责确保环境质量。我们将把在制度经济学中获得的关于经济创新和社会学习的见解和理论应用于面对高度不确定性条件下的快速经济和技术变革，以适应和改变公共部门的人类行为，面对潜在的严重环境问题。本研究将结合陆地表面植被对当地气候影响的量化研究、生态系统服务评估和社会学习方法，以了解内外部刺激推动下的个人和组织行为。我们将使用各种技术，包括贝叶斯模型来描述行为的动态，以及实时程序开发和实施，这些结果来自我们对一个城市的大规模自然实验的输入，该城市试图通过部署洛杉矶的城市森林来减轻其自身的污染。该提案的学术贡献包括推进跨越不同科学、工程和社会科学社区的综合研究工作。我们的工作旨在通过应用生物物理和社会科学相结合的方法，更好地理解人类社会组织的变化动态。我们将组织如何从制度经济学中学习的新见解应用到公共政策设置中。研究方法将包括使用经济工具通过房价来量化城市森林的价值，以及几种社会科学方法来了解政府组织如何学习和变化，包括制定现有规则和程序的基线，并观察这些规则和程序是否会随着城市环境中树木的经济和环境价值的新信息而变化。为了测量树木在城市环境中的环境影响，我们将在树干上部署热液流传感器，以了解树木蒸腾及其对当地气候的影响。我们将通过测量净辐射、温度和相对湿度剖面以及土壤热通量来评估城市树木蒸腾对局部能量分配的影响，以估计不同地点的波温比（感热通量与潜热通量之比）。这些测量值将与根据树液流测量值换算的树木蒸腾估算值进行比较。最后，我们还将开发一个陆地-地表-大气模型来模拟洛杉矶盆地城市森林对当地气候的耦合和交互影响。这项研究的更广泛影响将有助于理解人类行为和发展的动态，以及利用科学信息了解社会的制度障碍和障碍。我们的研究考察了复杂的公共和非营利组织是如何随着信息的变化而演变的：它们的社会学习和变革能力；由于新信息而产生的人类社会动态。这项研究还应有助于了解城市造林计划对环境质量的潜在影响，特别是在地中海气候条件下。在气候变化和城市环境退化严重的时期，我们的研究将有助于了解城市层面的修复策略的范围和潜力。

In a period of rapid global environmental change how do complex systems of human social organizations and individuals in urban areas create, grow, learn, and change in reaction to threats of climate change, local air pollution, and other environmental problems? What is the influence of scientific information and environmental awareness on the general public, on public agencies and their programs, and within those agencies themselves? What are the human social dynamics that occur and can these be characterized by theories of innovation and social learning that have been so successful in explaining economic performance? Periods of rapid change place a premium on the ability to acquire, absorb and react to relevant knowledge and information by the public institutions responsible for human health and welfare, and, in this research instance, for ensuring environmental quality. We will apply the insights and theories gained in institutional economics about economic innovation and social learning in the face of rapid economic and technological change in conditions of high uncertainty, to adaptation and change in human behavior in the public sector in the face of potentially grave environmental problems. This research will couple state of the art research in quantifying the effects of land surface vegetation on local climate, ecosystem services valuation and social learning methods to understand individual and organizational action under the impetus of internal and external stimuli. We will use a variety of techniques including Bayesian modeling to describe the dynamics of behavior, and real time program development and implementation that result from our input into a large scale natural experiment of a city attempting to mitigate its own pollution through the deployment of an urban forest in Los Angeles, California. This proposal's scholarly contribution includes advancing integrative research efforts spanning the different science, engineering and social science communities. Our work seeks to better understand the dynamics of change in human social organizations through the application of coupled biophysical and social science approaches. We apply new insights about how organizations learn from institutional economics to a public policy setting.The research methods will include using economic tools to quantify the value of the urban forest through housing prices, and several social science methods to understand how governmental organizations learn and change, including developing baselines of existing rules and procedures and observing if these change in response to new information about the economic and environmental value of trees in the urban environment. To measure the environmental impacts of trees in the urban environment, we will deploy thermal sap flow sensors in tree trunks to understand tree transpiration and its effects on the local climate. We will assess the impacts of urban tree transpiration on local energy partitioning with measurements of net radiation, temperature and relative humidity profiles, and soil heat flux to estimate the Bowen ratio (the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux) in varying locations. These measurements will be compared to tree transpiration estimates scaled from sap flow measurements. Finally, we will also develop a land-surface-atmosphere model to simulate the coupled and interactive impact of urban forests in the Los Angeles Basin on the local climateThe broader impacts of this research should contribute to understanding the dynamics of human action and development and the institutional obstacles and barriers to societies using scientific information. Our research examines how complex public and non-profit organizations evolve in response to information: their social learning and capacity for change; the ensuing human social dynamics that occur as a result of new information. This research should also assist in understanding the potential impacts on environmental quality of urban afforestation programs, particularly in Mediterranean climates. In a period of serious climate change and environmental degradation caused by cities, our research will contribute to understanding the extent and potential of remediation strategies at the city-level.