MUSES: Material Use, Infrastructural Change, and Environmental Impacts for Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

摘要（CTS-0628084 /卡内基梅隆大学）标题：MUSES：替代燃料和汽车的材料使用、基础设施变化和环境影响作者：Lester B. Lave, Chris Hendrickson， H. Scott Matthews, Jeremy Michalek， W. Michael griffin尽管政策制定者、汽车制造商和燃料供应商对替代燃料有相当大的兴趣，但仍存在巨大的经济和技术挑战。采用任何替代燃料都需要改变整个供应链。即使是与现有基础设施兼容的液体燃料，如乙醇，也会引起巨大的变化，因此，对基础设施需求的适当核算对于全面分析物质流动和环境影响以及向可持续基础设施过渡至关重要。虽然现有的许多研究都涉及生产替代燃料的过程和技术，但大多数研究都没有考虑到基础设施的必要变化。该项目建议将我们的工作重点放在未来可持续替代燃料的基础设施要求和最佳技术上，并通过为每种感兴趣的替代燃料/轻型车辆选择创建场景来探索不同的基础设施选择。该项目使用工业生态学的概念作为我们系统范围的方法来分析与物质流动相关的问题。该项目将评估各种基础设施组成部分、替代燃料和车辆选择的整个生命周期，采用一种混合方法，将过程和产品特定模型与卡内基梅隆大学开发的国家经济投入产出生命周期评估模型相结合。在美国，任何替代燃料和/或推进系统在轻型汽车上被采用的程度，将在很大程度上取决于所产生的特性在多大程度上满足市场的偏好。该项目将使用基于生命周期的分析，结合消费者异质需求选择模型，以及可实现的车辆属性的工程模拟，来预测在几种监管激励、技术进步和基础设施场景下，替代燃料和车辆的市场接受度和可能的企业反应。这项工作的结果将根据考虑环境、社会和经济问题的多方面标准提出最有希望的替代方案。拟议的研究和综合教育计划的更广泛影响：该项目计划了一系列与我们的研究活动相结合的教育任务。招收各类优秀的研究生和本科生。它将把研究成果整合到中学学徒计划、大学课程和其他地方使用的教育模块中。它将利用互联网作为传播教育材料的机制。更广泛地说，可持续能源和基础设施是美国和世界的关键需求。该项目指出，世界不能继续假设廉价的石油将满足我们的运输需求。从成本和整体环境影响两方面来看，社会需要走上一条通向可持续未来的轨道。本项目旨在通过专业和流行的分析和建议为这一运动作出重大贡献。该项目由MUSES基金通过国家科学基金会的CTS、ECS和DMR部门共同支持。

Abstract (CTS-0628084 / Carnegie Mellon University)Title: MUSES: Material Use, Infrastructure Change, and Environmental Impacts for Alternative Fuels and Vehicles PIs: Lester B. Lave, Chris Hendrickson, H. Scott Matthews, Jeremy Michalek, W. Michael GriffinWhile there is considerable interest in alternative fuels among policy makers,automobile manufacturers and fuel providers, substantial economic and technical challenges remain. The adoption of any alternative fuel requires changes throughout the supply chain. Even a liquid fuel such as ethanol that is compatible with current infrastructure can induce dramatic changes, so proper accounting of infrastructure requirements is critical to a complete analysis of material flows and environmental impacts and for a transition to sustainable infrastructure. While much existingresearch address processes and technology for producing alternative fuels, most do not account for the necessary changes in infrastructure. The project proposes to focus our work upon the infrastructure requirements and best technologies for a future of sustainable alternative fuels and to explore different infrastructure options by creating scenarios for each alternative fuel/light duty vehicle option of interest.The project uses the concept of industrial ecology as our system-wide approach to analyzing the body of issues related to material flows. The project will assess the entire life cycle of various infrastructure components, alternative fuels and vehicle options using a hybrid approach combining process and product specific models coupled with a national economic-input-output life-cycle assessment model developed at Carnegie Mellon. The degree to which any alternative fuel and/or propulsion system is adopted for light-duty vehicles in the United States will depend critically on how well the resulting attributes satisfy preferences in the marketplace. The project will use Life Cycle based analyses in conjunction with consumer choice models of heterogeneous demand with engineering simulations of attainable vehicle attributes to predict market acceptance and likely firm response for alternative fuels and vehicles under several regulatory incentives, technology progress, and infrastructural scenarios. Results from this work will suggest the most promising alternatives based on multifaceted criteria considering environmental, social, and economic issues.Broader Impacts of the Proposed Research and Integrated Education Program: The project plans a series of educational tasks that are integrated with our research activities. Diverse and talented graduate and undergraduate students will be recruited. It will integrate research results into a secondary school apprentice program, into university courses and into educational modules for use elsewhere. It will use the Internet as a mechanism to disseminate educational materials. More broadly, sustainable energy and infrastructure are critical needs for the United States and for the world. The project states that the world cannot continue to assume that inexpensive petroleum will be available for our transportation needs. Society needs to start on a trajectory that will lead to a sustainable future, both for costs and for overall environmental impact. This project is intended to contribute significantly to that movement with both professional and popular analyses and recommendations.The project is jointly supported by MUSES funds through the CTS, ECS, and DMR divisions of NSF.