Improving Social Decisions Concerning Potentially Carcinogenic Chemicals

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This proposal outlines a significant project to evaluate a quantitative approach to carcinogenic screening. The scientific foundation for testing potentially carcinogenic chemicals is in a state of controversy. Regulatory agencies must formulate policies for testing and interpreting bioassay results with a goal of lowing the incidence of cancer without needlessly penalizing the economy. The principal investigators have developed models to measure the information value of bioassays. They propose to extend the models and demonstrate how they can improve current regulatory decisions. The proposed research provides a structure for scientific thinking about uncertainty in testing potentially carcinogenic chemicals. This project has considerable potential for helping federal and state regulators, as well as chemical manufacturers, to make better decisions. In all, the anticipated impact of the research fully justifies support for the proposal.