Collaborative Research: Global Aspects of Tropical Cyclogenesis

合作研究：热带气旋发生的全球方面

• 批准号: 0630690
• 负责人: Kerry Emanuel
• 金额: $ 18万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-10-01 至 2009-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0630690&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Global; Aspects; Tropical

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes) do not appear spontaneously in the tropical atmosphere; instead they must be triggered by a preexisting disturbance. It is hypothesized that these storms are subcritical instabilities of the tropical atmosphere. This implies that the strength of the disturbance necessary to trigger a hurricane depends on the background state of the tropical atmosphere and ocean, and that, at least in theory, hurricanes could appear spontaneously in a different climate, one with instability parameters that exceed a critical point.The hypothesis of subcritical instability will be explored using a high-resolution numerical model to map out the instability diagram for tropical cyclogenesis and to reveal physical processes underlying the structure of this diagram. Physical insights from these experiments, together with observational data and experiments with a more idealized model, will be used to develop and refine a cyclogenesis index. Ultimately such an index can provide information about the frequency with which hurricanes form in different climates.Broader impacts of this research include training a graduate student and a post-doctoral researcher, as well as developing understanding and tools that could lead to improved predictions of how tropical cyclone activity will change as climate changes, either naturally or due to human influence.

热带气旋（飓风）不会在热带大气中自发出现；相反，它们必须由预先存在的干扰触发。据推测，这些风暴是热带大气的亚临界不稳定性。这意味着引发飓风所需的扰动强度取决于热带大气和海洋的背景状态，并且至少在理论上，飓风可以在不同的气候中自发出现，其不稳定参数超过临界点。将使用高分辨率数值模型来探索亚临界不稳定的假设，以绘制热带气旋发生的不稳定图并揭示物理过程 该图的结构的基础。这些实验的物理见解，加上观测数据和更理想化模型的实验，将用于开发和完善气旋指数。最终，这样的指数可以提供有关不同气候下飓风形成频率的信息。这项研究的更广泛影响包括培训研究生和博士后研究员，以及发展理解和工具，从而改进对热带气旋活动将如何随着气候变化而变化的预测，无论是自然变化还是人类影响。