Collaborative Research: P2C2--Assessing Climate and Stochastic Forcing of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Past Millennium

合作研究：P2C2——评估过去千年北大西洋热带气旋活动的气候和随机强迫

• 批准号: 2202785
• 负责人: Kerry Emanuel
• 金额: $ 7.65万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2202785&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Assessing; Climate

This project aims to improve model predictions of tropical cyclones in coastal North America by combining past records of Atlantic hurricanes with tropical cyclone models of the North Atlantic. The U.S. coastal communities are susceptible to tropical cyclone (TC) damages, with urban infrastructure that is ill-equipped for TC-induced flooding. Recent active Atlantic hurricane seasons (i.e., 2020) have cast justified attention on the role of climate change in altering TCs in the North Atlantic. However, a robust analysis of the influence of longer-time scale climate variability on the frequency and trajectories of TC is hindered by the short observation datasets (~ 50 years available from satellite records). Past records of hurricanes (proxy records) can extend the record of TC statistics to thousands of years beyond observational data. But these records tend to capture only close-moving and intense storms which make it difficult to ascertain whether past records of hurricanes are related to climate variability or randomness (stochasticity). Therefore, this project proposes to rigorously assess uncertainties associated with past hurricane records (paleohurricanes) by analyzing existing proxies of TCs from the North Atlantic and comparing them to new TC model simulations of the past millennium. These data-model comparisons will then be used to both investigate the sensitivity of Atlantic TCs to changing climate drivers and feedbacks in a model world, and to test the ability of individual and networks of paleohurricane records in capturing TC climate in the real world. The potential Broader Impacts include a better understanding of the processes driving changes in tropical cyclones activity in the Atlantic and a potential improvement of the ability to predict future tropical cyclones risk for coastal communitiesSpecifically, the researchers will: 1) Generate North Atlantic TC datasets spanning multiple model simulations of the last millennium; 2) Investigate relationships between the past response of modeled TCs and climatic drivers (such as the North Atlantic Subtropical High and El Niño Southern Oscillation); 3) Integrate new TC simulations with existing records of past hurricanes spanning the past millennium to quantify the climate signal captured in individual records compared to local noise; and 4) Develop methodology for combining reconstructions of past hurricanes to maximize regional-to-basin-wide climate signal. This project will potentially expand the dataset of landfalling TCs to better quantify local risks and robustly assess the role for climate variability in driving TC activity. A storm dataset spanning the last 1000 years will be developed and available to the broader scientific community and stakeholders. This project will provide research experience and support for two early-career scientists, including research support for one postdoctoral fellow and undergraduate students at Rice University. The researchers will leverage undergraduate summer research projects through Rice’s anticipated 2020-2022 REU which recruits historically black college and community college students. Further, the researchers at Rice University will work with leaders of Girl Scouts San Jacinto Council to plan events focused on hurricane science and preparedness, including sessions that will engage the participants of the Girl Scout Global Leadership Conference, attended by 250 scouts and 150 troop leaders. The project will also support summer research experiences for high school students through collaboration with the Rice Design, Connect, Create (DCC). The 4-week summer program engages 35-60 minority participants in applied physics including climate, but also establishes networks and mentoring for participants across critical transitions in STEM career pathways – from high school, to graduate school, and beyond – known to be critical to retaining scientists in STEM fields. The outcome of this research project will be disseminated to thousands of students in Houston public schools through the Rice Research Experience for Teachers (RET) and Applied Math Program (AMP!).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在通过将大西洋飓风的过去记录与北大西洋的热带气旋模型相结合，以改善北美沿海热带气旋的模型预测。美国沿海社区容易受到热带气旋（TC）损害，城市基础设施不适合通过TC引起的洪水。最近活跃的大西洋飓风季节（即2020年）对气候变化在改变北大西洋的TC的作用的关注也表明了正当的关注。然而，短期观察数据集妨碍了长时间气候变异性对TC频率和轨迹的影响的强大分析（从卫星记录中获得约50年）。过去的飓风记录（代理记录）可以将TC统计数据的记录扩展到观察数据之外的数千年。但是这些记录倾向于仅捕获近距离移动和强烈的风暴，这使得难以确定过去的飓风记录是否与气候变化或随机性有关（随机性）。因此，该项目提议通过分析来自北大西洋的TC的现有代理，并将其与过去千年中的新的TC模型模拟进行比较，以严格评估与过去的飓风记录（古尿道）相关的不确定性。然后，这些数据模型比较将用于研究大西洋TC对改变气候驱动因素和模型世界中的反馈的敏感性，并测试古尿路记录的个人和网络在现实世界中捕获TC攀登的能力。潜在的更广泛的影响包括更好地理解大西洋热带气旋活动的变化的过程以及预测未来的热带气旋风险的能力可能会提高沿海社区的风险，这些沿海地区的风险是：1）生成北大西洋TC数据集，涵盖了最后一千年的多个模型模拟； 2）研究模型的TCS和杂交驱动因素（例如北大西洋亚热带高和厄尔尼诺南部振荡）之间的关系； 3）将新的TC模拟与过去千年的过去飓风的现有记录相结合，以量化与当地噪声相比，在单个记录中捕获的气候信号； 4）开发结合过去飓风重建的方法，以最大程度地提高区域到巴辛范围的气候信号。该项目将有可能扩大登陆的TC的数据集，以更好地量化当地风险，并牢固地评估气候变异性在驱动TC活动中的作用。将开发跨越1000年的风暴数据集，并将提供更广泛的科学界和利益相关者。该项目将为两位早期职业科学家提供研究经验和支持，包括对莱斯大学的一名博士后研究生和本科生的研究支持。研究人员将通过赖斯预期的2020-2022 REU来利用本科夏季研究项目，该项目报告了历史悠久的黑人学院和社区大学生。此外，赖斯大学的研究人员将与女童军圣哈辛托委员会的领导人合作，计划着专注于飓风科学和准备的活动，包括会议，这些会议将吸引女童子军全球领导力会议的参与者，由250名球探和150名部队领导人参加。该项目还将通过与Rice Design，Connect，Create（DCC）合作来支持高中生的夏季研究经验。这项为期4周的夏季计划与35-60名少数群体参与者参与了包括气候在内的应用物理学，但也为在STEM职业途径中的关键过渡（从高中，研究生院及其他地区）建立网络并为参与者提供心理，知道对于保留STEM领域的科学家至关重要。该研究项目的结果将通过赖斯（Rice）的教师研究经验（RET）和应用数学计划（AMP！）。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和广泛的审查标准，将其视为值得通过评估，以反映了NSF的法定任务。