Trends and Variability of Temperatures near the Tropical Tropopause Layer and Implications for Tropical Cyclones

热带对流层顶层附近温度的趋势和变化以及对热带气旋的影响

• 批准号: 1461517
• 负责人: Kerry Emanuel
• 金额: $ 52.56万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-06-15 至 2019-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1461517&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Trends; Variability; Temperatures; near; Tropical

This project will enhance understanding of atmospheric physics, chemistry, and dynamics on tropical cyclone activity. It will advance scientific confidence in projections of the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones. Linkages across chemistry, radiation, dynamics, and meteorology provide an ideal framework for the type of cross-disciplinary education needed for the next generation of climate scientists.Understanding of the factors that influence tropical cyclones has broadened in recent years to include consideration of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), which can affect storm outflow temperatures and thereby potential and actual intensities. Observations from multiple sources show that the atmosphere in the vicinity of the TTL exhibits substantial variability on interannual and decadal timescales, which could affect variability and trends in tropical cyclones. However, the physical and chemical processes affecting these changes are not well understood, and reanalysis products and coupled general circulation models often do not agree on the magnitude of this variability. The effects of changes in volcanic aerosol, water vapor, and ozone in a hierarchy of radiative and chemical/dynamical modeling approaches will be examined, and implications of radiative processes for tropical cyclones will be identified.

这个项目将提高对热带气旋活动的大气物理、化学和动力学的理解。它将提高预测气候变化对热带气旋影响的科学信心。化学、辐射、动力学和气象学之间的联系为下一代气候科学家所需的跨学科教育提供了一个理想的框架。近年来，对影响热带气旋的因素的理解已经扩大到包括热带对流层顶（TTL）的考虑，它可以影响风暴流出温度，从而影响潜在和实际强度。来自多个来源的观测表明，TTL附近的大气在年际和十年时间尺度上表现出很大的变化，这可能会影响热带气旋的变化和趋势。然而，影响这些变化的物理和化学过程还没有得到很好的理解，再分析产品和耦合的大气环流模式往往不同意这种变化的幅度。火山气溶胶，水蒸气和臭氧的辐射和化学/动力学模拟方法的层次结构的变化的影响将被检查，并将确定热带气旋的辐射过程的影响。