Trends and Variability of Temperatures near the Tropical Tropopause Layer and Implications for Tropical Cyclones

热带对流层顶层附近温度的趋势和变化以及对热带气旋的影响

• 批准号: 1461517
• 负责人: Kerry Emanuel
• 金额: $ 52.56万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-06-15 至 2019-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1461517&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Trends; Variability; Temperatures; near; Tropical

This project will enhance understanding of atmospheric physics, chemistry, and dynamics on tropical cyclone activity. It will advance scientific confidence in projections of the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones. Linkages across chemistry, radiation, dynamics, and meteorology provide an ideal framework for the type of cross-disciplinary education needed for the next generation of climate scientists.Understanding of the factors that influence tropical cyclones has broadened in recent years to include consideration of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), which can affect storm outflow temperatures and thereby potential and actual intensities. Observations from multiple sources show that the atmosphere in the vicinity of the TTL exhibits substantial variability on interannual and decadal timescales, which could affect variability and trends in tropical cyclones. However, the physical and chemical processes affecting these changes are not well understood, and reanalysis products and coupled general circulation models often do not agree on the magnitude of this variability. The effects of changes in volcanic aerosol, water vapor, and ozone in a hierarchy of radiative and chemical/dynamical modeling approaches will be examined, and implications of radiative processes for tropical cyclones will be identified.

该项目将增强对热带气旋活性的大气物理，化学和动力学的理解。它将提高对气候变化对热带气旋影响的预测的科学信心。化学，辐射，动力学和气象学之间的联系为下一代气候科学家所需的跨学科教育提供了理想的框架。了解影响热带旋风的因素近年来已经扩大了范围，以包括对热带热带膜（TTL）的考虑（TTL），这些因素会影响风暴溢出的潜在和实际的潜在和实际的强度。来自多个来源的观察结果表明，TTL附近的大气在年际和十年时间表上表现出很大的可变性，这可能会影响热带气旋的变异性和趋势。但是，影响这些变化的物理和化学过程尚不清楚，重新分析产物和耦合的一般循环模型通常不同意这种变异性的幅度。将检查火山气溶胶，水蒸气和臭氧在辐射和化学/动力学建模方法层次结构中的变化，并将确定辐射过程对热带气旋的影响。