Trends and Variability of Temperatures Near the Tropical Tropopause Layer and Implications for Tropical Cyclones

该项目的目标是估计纬向平均值中热带对流层顶层（TTL）中辐射活性物质（特别是水蒸气、臭氧和火山气溶胶）的可能变化范围，并使用嵌入在辐射对流模式中的逐行辐射传输代码，对每种物质对该地区辐射收支的潜在贡献进行初步分析。在考虑了纬向平均变化之后，还将探讨TTL中辐射活跃物种的区域变化，为更详细地分析辐射强迫对所有海洋盆地TTL热结构变化与热带气旋活动耦合的影响做准备。了解并能够预测TTL温度变化有可能改善对气候变化的预测，并提高我们预测热带气旋活动变化的能力。因此，该项目对社会产生了更广泛的影响。

The goals of this project are to estimate the ranges of plausible changes in radiatively-active species in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) in the zonal average, particularly water vapor, ozone, and volcanic aerosols, and conduct an initial analysis of the potential contributions of each to the radiative budget of this region using a line-by-line radiative transfer code embedded in a radiative-convective model. After consideration of zonally averaged changes, regional changes in radiatively active species in the TTL will also be explored, as preparation for a more detailed analysis of the implications of radiative forcing for the coupling of TTL thermal structure changes to tropical cyclone activity in all ocean basins. Understanding and being able to predict TTL temperature changes have the potential to improve predictions of climate change, as well as increase our ability to project changes in tropical cyclone activity. This project thus has substantial broader impacts for society.