Trends and Variability of Temperatures Near the Tropical Tropopause Layer and Implications for Tropical Cyclones

热带对流层顶层附近温度的趋势和变化以及对热带气旋的影响

• 批准号: 1342810
• 负责人: Kerry Emanuel
• 金额: $ 23.93万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-01 至 2015-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1342810&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Trends; Variability; Temperatures; Near; Tropical

The goals of this project are to estimate the ranges of plausible changes in radiatively-active species in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) in the zonal average, particularly water vapor, ozone, and volcanic aerosols, and conduct an initial analysis of the potential contributions of each to the radiative budget of this region using a line-by-line radiative transfer code embedded in a radiative-convective model. After consideration of zonally averaged changes, regional changes in radiatively active species in the TTL will also be explored, as preparation for a more detailed analysis of the implications of radiative forcing for the coupling of TTL thermal structure changes to tropical cyclone activity in all ocean basins. Understanding and being able to predict TTL temperature changes have the potential to improve predictions of climate change, as well as increase our ability to project changes in tropical cyclone activity. This project thus has substantial broader impacts for society.

该项目的目标是估计热带对流层顶层（TTL）中的辐射活性物质在纬向平均中的可能变化范围，特别是水蒸气、臭氧和火山气溶胶，并使用嵌入辐射-对流模式的逐线辐射传输代码对每种物质对该区域辐射收支的潜在贡献进行初步分析。在考虑了纬向平均变化之后，还将探讨热带气旋温度场中辐射活跃物种的区域变化，为更详细地分析辐射强迫对热带气旋温度场热结构变化与所有海洋盆地热带气旋活动之间的耦合所产生的影响作准备。了解并能够预测TTL温度变化有可能改善对气候变化的预测，并提高我们预测热带气旋活动变化的能力。因此，该项目对社会产生了广泛的影响。