Trends and Variability of Temperatures Near the Tropical Tropopause Layer and Implications for Tropical Cyclones

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The goals of this project are to estimate the ranges of plausible changes in radiatively-active species in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) in the zonal average, particularly water vapor, ozone, and volcanic aerosols, and conduct an initial analysis of the potential contributions of each to the radiative budget of this region using a line-by-line radiative transfer code embedded in a radiative-convective model. After consideration of zonally averaged changes, regional changes in radiatively active species in the TTL will also be explored, as preparation for a more detailed analysis of the implications of radiative forcing for the coupling of TTL thermal structure changes to tropical cyclone activity in all ocean basins. Understanding and being able to predict TTL temperature changes have the potential to improve predictions of climate change, as well as increase our ability to project changes in tropical cyclone activity. This project thus has substantial broader impacts for society.