Water Cycle Dynamics in a Changing Environment: Advancing Hydrologic Science Through Synthesis

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PIs: Murugesu Sivapalan, Praveen Kumar, Bruce L. Rhoads and Don WuebblesAbstractHydrologic science has evolved to embrace scientists from a diverse range of disciplines, driven by the many challenging problems that now exist at the interface of various science disciplines,. Tremendous strides have been made but the enormous complexity of the problems continues to pose challenges for predicting interactions among the physical, biological, biogeochemical, and human subsystems that shape the behavior of hydrologic systems, especially in the context of human-induced changes to climate and land use. Predictions focused on individual components or unchanging landscapes or climate are no longer deemed satisfactory. The changing environment therefore provides both a challenge and an opportunity for developing sound foundations for improving the predictability of water cycle dynamics through an approach based on a synthesis of observations, analysis methods, concepts and theories across a broad range of scientific fields, including hydrology, ecology, geomorphology, geochemistry, and the social sciences, in a manner sufficient to meet the water challenges we now face and will face in the future. The aim of this project is to conduct a range of synthesis activities that will produce transformational outcomes in the critical research area of "improving predictability of water cycle dynamics in a changing environment," which will serve as an effective model of synthesis within the hydrological community. This objective will be achieved by through the formation of a targeted synthesis team and associated synthesis activity groups, and through these groups, carrying out focused research activities to generate outcomes that will serve as national prototypes of the power of synthesis for investigating and solving complex hydrologic problems. The synthesis activities will consist of a mix of workshops, small-group research activities, combined with the use of cyber-infrastructure. To undertake this project, a research consortium has been formed consisting of several established research centers as partners (NCED, HWR/SAHRA, NCAR, NCEAS, IRI, NCSA) with UIUC acting as the hub. Membership of the synthesis team and synthesis activity groups will be open to partner organizations as well as the general scientific community.