NER: Scenario Analysis for Upstream Identification of Risks and Opportunities from Nanotechnology

这项纳米级探索性研究奖将考察使用情景分析来上游识别纳米技术的风险和机会。纳米技术在其生命周期中带来高度的不确定性，因此有必要建立框架，以上游确定纳米技术的社会和环境影响以及它所带来的机会，这样监管就不会阻碍技术发展。该项目使用情景分析方法，其中社会科学家和技术科学家利用道德想象力和专家启发与利益攸关方谈判问题，以制定一种基于风险的办法来开发和管理纳米技术。具体而言，情景分析用于：(1)了解社会需求如何指导纳米技术进行环境监测和补救；(2)估计新兴技术的潜在风险；(3)探索基于风险和机会的纳米技术监管模式。这项研究的学术价值包括开发一个情景分析框架，通过包括纳米材料的毒性来识别和评级风险，对监管结构的综合看法，对系统层面的影响的考虑，以及在技术开发中考虑更广泛的社会需求。该项目的更广泛影响是，使科学知情的交易区能够制定情景，以确定纳米技术的潜在风险和环境惠益。一名环境系统分析专业的博士生和一名硕士研究生将获得为期一年的支持，与教师顾问以及由政策专家组成的独立咨询小组合作，以了解应用于纳米技术的紧迫的社会需求和监管关切。

This Nanoscale Exploratory Research award will examine the use of scenario analysis for upstream identification of risks and opportunities from nanotechnology. The high degree of uncertainty that nanotechnology poses during its lifecycle, necessitates frameworks for upstream identification of both the social and environmental impacts of nanotechnology, as well as the opportunities it poses, so that regulation does not stymie technological development. This project uses a scenario analysis methodology wherein social scientists and technical scientists negotiate the issues with stakeholders using moral imagination and expert elicitation to develop a risk-based approach to the development and regulation of nanotechnology. Specifically, scenario analysis is applied to: (1) Understand how societal needs may guide nanotechnology for environmental monitoring and remediation; (2) Estimate potential risks from an emerging technology; and (3) Explore models for risk and opportunity-based regulation of nanotechnology. The intellectual merits of this research include the development of a scenario analysis framework to identify and rank risks by including toxicity of nanomaterials, an integrated view of the regulatory structure, a consideration of system-level impacts, and accounting for broader social needs within technology development. The broader impacts of the project the enabling of scientifically informed trading zones to develop scenarios for identifying potential risks and also environmental benefits of nanotechnology. A Ph.D. student and an MS student specializing in environmental systems analysis will be supported for a year to work jointly with faculty advisors, as well as with an independent advisory panel of policy experts, to understand the pressing societal needs and regulatory concerns as applied to nanotechnology.