DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Predicting viral dynamics in Serengeti Carnivores

感染多种物种的疾病威胁着人类、家畜和野生动物的健康。这项研究解决了塞伦盖蒂生态系统中两种多物种疾病的疾病动态：犬瘟热病毒（1994年杀死了1000多头狮子）和狂犬病（杀死了人类和所有其他哺乳动物）。本文的目的是利用基于种内和种间接触率的野外数据参数化的创新模型，了解犬瘟热病毒和狂犬病如何在塞伦盖蒂生态系统中持续存在，并设计适当的控制措施。数学模型允许虚拟实验，否则在现实世界中是不道德的或不可行的。这项研究将是第一个将建模与多宿主生态系统的详细观察相结合的野生食肉动物疾病动力学的生态学研究。这里建立的理论模型不仅有助于对疾病动力学的基本理解，而且为非洲农村的食肉动物保护和人类健康提供实用建议。在一个频繁出现疾病的时代，迫切需要理论方法来改善现实生活中的保护行动，以改善未来的疾病控制计划。

Diseases that infect multiple species threaten the health of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. This study addresses the disease dynamics of two multi-species diseases in the Serengeti ecosystem: canine distemper virus (which killed over a thousand lions in 1994) and rabies (which kills humans as well as all other mammals). The objective of this thesis is to use innovative models parameterized with field data on intraspecific and interspecific contact rates to understand how canine distemper virus and rabies persist in the Serengeti ecosystem and to design appropriate control measures. Mathematical models allow for virtual experiments that would otherwise be unethical or infeasible in the real world.This research will be the first ecological study of disease dynamics in wild carnivores to combine modeling with detailed observations in a multi-host ecosystem. The theoretical models developed here will not only contribute to a basic understanding of disease dynamics but also provide practical recommendations for carnivore conservation and human health in rural Africa. Theoretical approaches to real-life conservation actions are urgently needed to improve future disease control programs in an era of frequent emerging diseases.