BE/CNH: Biocomplexity of the Greater Serengeti: Humans in a Biologically Diverse Ecosystem

BE/CNH：大塞伦盖蒂的生物复杂性：生物多样性生态系统中的人类

• 批准号: 0308486
• 负责人: Craig Packer
• 金额: $ 172.25万
• 依托单位: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-15 至 2008-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0308486&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Biocomplexity; Greater; Serengeti; Humans

The Greater Serengeti Ecosystem (hereafter "the Serengeti") is a complex coupled human and natural system consisting of a network of diverse and intense trophic interactions played out over a heterogeneous landscape. Livestock and a species-rich assemblage of large mammalian herbivores, the most abundant of which migrate over a 12,000 square-km area each year, consume a high fraction of primary plant production. These herbivores sustain human populations and a rich assemblage of avian and mammalian carnivores. Moreover, humans, wild animals, and livestock are all vulnerable to a wide variety of infectious diseases. Broad-scale heterogeneity in land use is superimposed on this dynamic landscape. The Serengeti National Park is a classic example of a protected area and ecotourism destination, while the adjacent Ngorongoro Conservation Area permits Maasai pastoralism, game reserves, (Maswa and Ikorongo) permit-controlled off-take of trophy species, and game-controlled areas (Grumeti) that permit all human activity except agriculture. The linkages between human and natural components of the Serengeti are so pervasive that human decision making may be the critical process governing the fate of the entire ecosystem. Pressure is mounting as human and animal populations converge on the western border of Serengeti National Park (SNP) and Mara Reserve. To study the coupling of natural ecosystem functioning and human decision making in the greater Serengeti, this interdisciplinary research project will use four modeling approaches: (1) Process-rich, spatially explicit ecosystem simulation models will be developed to predict changes in plant and animal communities as well as human use of landscapes at different scales. (2) Agent-based models will incorporate individual decision-making rules in a spatially explicit environment. (3) Analytical models of community modules will explore interactions among five to ten key species. (4) Macro-ecological models will describe system patterns and processes as functions of major resource inputs, such as rainfall and soil nutrients. These models will explore emergent dynamics of the Serengeti at various organizational scales. A large amount of Serengeti field data will be analyzed to parameterize the models and to assess their ability to explain past dynamics and current ecosystem trends. In addition, crucial new data on human activities and choices will be collected to understand the coupling of system dynamics between natural and human-dominated components. This blend of different modeling approaches and data syntheses will permit a unique integration of ecological and social sciences. The concept of ecosystem resilience/resistance will be directly related to the vulnerability of human societies.The theory of complex systems proposes that emergent properties can arise from relatively simple underlying mechanisms propagated in space and time. The vulnerability of humans and sustainability of biodiversity in the Serengeti may be driven by a few critical constraints that operate independently of individual components. These constraints arise from fundamental laws/principles in psychology, biology, chemistry, and physics that constrain key biological processes and human decisions. Alternatively, complex systems may be sensitive to small differences in initial conditions and show a tendency to switch between alternative states. This sensitivity suggests that biodiversity and human welfare may be highly contingent on details such as individual behavior, the identity of the species participating, and the precise spatial arrangement of interactions among humans, plants, animals, and diseases. The Serengeti provides a unique opportunity to test this hypothesis, because its component parts are so conspicuous and its dynamical patterns have been measured for 40 years. Finally, emergent system properties may be contingent on just a few critical components, which would imply that the Serengeti can be understood from networks of interaction among a few key species of plants/animals and humans. In addition to providing fundamental new knowledge, the project will provide insights and information of immediate value of managers and decision makers in the study region and many other locales. It also will provide valuable research and training opportunities for students and post-doctoral scholars, and it will facilitate international collaborations between U.S. and African scientists. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2003 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

大塞伦盖蒂生态系统（以下简称“塞伦盖蒂”）是一个复杂的人类和自然耦合系统，由一个在异质景观上发挥作用的多样化和强烈的营养相互作用网络组成。牲畜和种类丰富的大型哺乳食草动物，其中最丰富的每年迁移面积超过12,000平方公里，消耗了大部分原始植物生产。这些食草动物维持着人类种群和丰富的鸟类和哺乳动物食肉动物的组合。此外，人类、野生动物和牲畜都容易感染各种各样的传染病。土地利用的广泛异质性叠加在这一动态景观上。塞伦盖蒂国家公园是一个典型的保护区和生态旅游目的地，而邻近的恩戈罗恩戈罗保护区允许马赛人放牧，狩猎保护区（Maswa和Ikorongo）允许控制战利品物种的获取，以及狩猎控制区（Grumeti）允许除农业以外的所有人类活动。塞伦盖蒂的人类和自然成分之间的联系是如此普遍，以至于人类的决策可能是控制整个生态系统命运的关键过程。随着人类和动物聚集在塞伦盖蒂国家公园（SNP）和马拉保护区的西部边界，压力越来越大。为了研究大塞伦盖蒂自然生态系统功能与人类决策的耦合，本跨学科研究项目将采用四种建模方法：(1)建立过程丰富、空间明确的生态系统模拟模型，以预测不同尺度上植物和动物群落的变化以及人类对景观的利用。(2)基于主体的模型将在空间显式环境中纳入个体决策规则。(3)群落模块分析模型将探索5 - 10个关键物种之间的相互作用。(4)宏观生态模型将描述系统模式和过程作为主要资源投入（如降雨和土壤养分）的功能。这些模型将探索塞伦盖蒂在不同组织规模上的动态变化。大量的塞伦盖蒂油田数据将被分析以参数化模型，并评估其解释过去动态和当前生态系统趋势的能力。此外，将收集有关人类活动和选择的重要新数据，以了解自然和人类主导组件之间的系统动力学耦合。这种不同建模方法和数据综合的混合将允许生态和社会科学的独特整合。生态系统复原力/抵抗力的概念将与人类社会的脆弱性直接相关。复杂系统理论提出，涌现的特性可以从在空间和时间中传播的相对简单的潜在机制中产生。人类的脆弱性和塞伦盖蒂生物多样性的可持续性可能是由一些独立于个体因素的关键制约因素驱动的。这些约束来自心理学、生物学、化学和物理学的基本定律/原理，这些定律/原理限制了关键的生物过程和人类的决定。或者，复杂系统可能对初始条件的微小差异敏感，并表现出在不同状态之间切换的倾向。这种敏感性表明，生物多样性和人类福祉可能高度依赖于个体行为、参与物种的身份以及人类、植物、动物和疾病之间相互作用的精确空间安排等细节。塞伦盖蒂平原为验证这一假设提供了一个独特的机会，因为它的组成部分非常明显，而且它的动态模式已经被测量了40年。最后，紧急系统的特性可能只取决于几个关键的组成部分，这意味着塞伦盖蒂可以从几个关键的植物/动物和人类之间的相互作用网络来理解。除了提供基本的新知识外，该项目还将为研究区域和许多其他地区的管理人员和决策者提供具有直接价值的见解和信息。它还将为学生和博士后学者提供宝贵的研究和培训机会，并将促进美国和非洲科学家之间的国际合作。该项目获得了2003年度环境生物复杂性特别竞赛奖项的支持，该竞赛侧重于自然和人类系统耦合动力学。