LTREB: Long-Term Studies of African Lions

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In the next 10 yrs, the Serengeti lion project will conduct comprehensive research to construct and test detailed models of population and community ecology. First, the project will investigate lion population dynamics in stochastic environments, constructing generalized additive and generalized linear models with population-level variables (overall food availability, climate and population density), pride-level variables (local food availability, pride size and structure) and individual variables (age and sex). Second, the project will investigate the role of spatial heterogeneity in stabilizing the coexistence of competing carnivore species. Cheetahs, lions and hyenas may show divergent niche strategies that create a reticulated pattern of occupancy within an overall pattern of coexistence. Third, the project will likely measure the impact of a large-scale loss in prey availability on lion population dynamics and sociality, owing to the impending collapse of the wildebeest migration. While group living is predicted to be common across a wide range of resource distributions at high population densities, grouping should be restricted to a few localized areas at low densities. Fourth, the project will measure cycle length of four viral diseases to test predictions of well parameterized multi-host models.Broader Impacts: Data from this study will be used by wildlife managers throughout the world, providing important insights for predicting the consequences of habitat change and fragmentation, identifying the landscape features necessary for species co-existence and measuring the effectiveness of disease control programs. Based on the investigator's past experience, continuation of this long-term program will result in numerous publications, training of American and Tanzanian graduate students in ecology and epidemiology, and widespread reporting in the popular press.