Viral Transmission Dynamics in the Serengeti

塞伦盖蒂的病毒传播动力学

• 批准号: 0225453
• 负责人: Craig Packer
• 金额: $ 148.2万
• 依托单位: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-06-01 至 2008-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0225453&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Viral; Transmission; Dynamics; Serengeti

Of the emerging infectious diseases, zoonotic and generalist viral pathogens pose a particular threat to public health and biodiversity. The effective control of these diseases requires both the identification of reservoires of infection and an understanding of viral transmission dynamics within complex host assemblages. Yet for most emerging infectious diseases, reservoirs remain to be identified and little is known about mechanisms by which infections are maintained. This study will propose a theoretical and practical framework for recognizing reservoirs in the field, which will be applied to identify reservoirs of viral infections in the Serengeti, Tanzania. The recent emergence of viral diseases in this area provides the opportunity for a comparative study of zoonotic and generalist pathogens within a diverse, well-studied and important ecosystem. Furthermore, the area is surrounded by rapidly expanding human and domestic animal populations which have profound impacts on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. This study will investigate the transmission dynamics of three viral pathogens, rabies, cane distemper virus (CDV), and canine parvovirus (CPV), identifying reservoirs of infection through a combination of approaches that include intervention trials, genetic analyses and disease surveillance. Empirical data on the spatial distribution of hosts and contact rated will be integrated into mathematical models of transmission between and within species. These models will be used to (a) investigate mechanisms by which viral infections are maintained in multi-population systems; (b) anticipate future requirements for disease management in relation to changes in human activity and climate patterns; (c) design cost-effective programs for the control of disease in human and animal populations.

在新出现的传染病中，人畜共患病和一般性病毒病原体对公共卫生和生物多样性构成特别威胁。 这些疾病的有效控制，需要识别的感染途径和复杂的主机集合内的病毒传播动力学的理解。 然而，对于大多数新出现的传染病，宿主仍有待确定，对维持感染的机制知之甚少。 这项研究将提出一个理论和实践框架，以识别水库在该领域，这将被应用于识别水库的病毒感染，坦桑尼亚的塞伦盖蒂。 最近出现的病毒性疾病在这一领域提供了机会，比较研究的人畜共患病和通才病原体内的多样性，充分研究和重要的生态系统。 此外，该地区被迅速扩大的人类和家畜种群所包围，这对传染病的传播动态产生了深远的影响。 本研究将调查三种病毒病原体，狂犬病，甘蔗瘟热病毒（CDV）和犬细小病毒（CPV）的传播动力学，通过干预试验，遗传分析和疾病监测等方法的组合来确定感染的宿主。 关于宿主空间分布和接触率的经验数据将被纳入物种之间和物种内部传播的数学模型。 这些模型将用于（a）调查病毒感染在多种群系统中维持的机制;（B）预测与人类活动和气候模式变化有关的疾病管理的未来要求;（c）设计控制人类和动物种群疾病的成本效益方案。