Spatial Heterogeneity, Nonlocal Interactions and Time Delay in Biological and Epidemiological Spread

生物和流行病学传播的空间异质性、非局部相互作用和时间延迟

• 批准号: 0715772
• 负责人: Shigui Ruan
• 金额: $ 5.25万
• 依托单位: University of Miami
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-01 至 2010-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0715772&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Spatial; Heterogeneity; Nonlocal; Interactions; Time

This project is a study of the effect of spatial heterogeneity, nonlocal interactions and time delay on the spatiotemporal dynamics of some biological and epidemiological models. The first part of the project focuses on the existence, uniqueness and stability of traveling wave solutions of reaction-diffusion equations with nonlocal delay. The results can be applied to study traveling wave solutions in various models arising in biology, ecology, epidemiology, medicine, etc. The second part of the project seeks to develop a generalized Ross-Macdonald vector-host disease model, modeled by diffusive integro-differential equations with spatio-temporal delay, which describe nonlocal interactions and latent periods. An investigation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the model, including the existence of epidemic waves, is proposed. The effects of spatial heterogeneity and time delay on the establishment and transmission of diseases will also be considered. The model can be applied to study how immigration affects local epidemic and extinction of the parasite. The results on the delayed Ross-Macdonald malaria model are useful in understanding and controlling the malaria transmission in some regions such as in costal Kenya. The third part of the project is a study of epidemic models of antibiotic-resistant bacteria infection in hospitals focusing on infection age, host heterogeneity and multi-drug resistant bacterial strains. By studying the asymptotic behavior of these models an attempt is made to identify factors responsible for observed patterns of infection, and to provide theoretical guidance for designing efficient control measures.In modern society, global change has resulted in more human activities and environmental changes, which in turn have affected human health. For example, global warming has affected the transmission of malaria. Throughout recorded history, non-indigenous vectors that arrive, establish, and spread in new areas have fomented epidemics of human diseases such as malaria, yellow fever, typhus, plague, and the West Nile virus. The spatial spread of newly introduced species or diseases is a subject of continuing interest to both theoreticians and empiricists. This project proposes to study the spatial transmission of certain vector-host diseases such as malaria and hopes that the study can help understand the establishment and spread of other vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus and bird flu. Epidemics caused by antimicrobial-resistant bacteria (ARB), such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin resistant enterococci (VRE), in hospitals are increasing throughout the world. Approximately 5-10% of patients admitted to a hospital will develop an infection directly related to their hospitalization. These infections contribute to over 90,000 deaths per year in the US. It is estimated that 70% of the causative pathogens are resistant to one or more antimicrobials. The project also studies nosocomial epidemics with antibiotic resistance which will help to provide some control measures to combat such epidemics inside hospitals.

本项目主要研究空间异质性、非局部相互作用和时滞对某些生物和流行病模型时空动力学的影响。 第一部分研究了一类具有非局部时滞的反应扩散方程行波解的存在性、唯一性和稳定性。结果可以应用于研究行波解在生物学，生态学，流行病学，医学等各种模型中出现的第二部分的项目旨在开发一个广义的罗斯-麦克唐纳病媒-宿主疾病模型，模拟扩散积分微分方程的时空延迟，描述非局部相互作用和潜伏期。研究了该模型的时空动力学，包括流行病波的存在性。 还将考虑空间异质性和时间延迟对疾病建立和传播的影响。该模型可用于研究移民如何影响当地的流行和灭绝的寄生虫。延迟型Ross-Macdonald疟疾模型的研究结果对了解和控制肯尼亚沿海等地区的疟疾传播具有重要意义。第三部分是医院内耐药菌感染的流行病学模型研究，重点研究感染年龄、宿主异质性和多重耐药菌株。通过研究这些模型的渐近性态，试图找出影响感染模式的因素，为设计有效的控制措施提供理论指导。在现代社会，全球变化导致了更多的人类活动和环境变化，这反过来又影响了人类的健康。 例如，全球变暖影响了疟疾的传播。 在有记载的历史中，到达、定居并在新地区传播的非本土病媒引发了疟疾、黄热病、斑疹伤寒、鼠疫和西尼罗河病毒等人类疾病的流行。新引入物种或疾病的空间传播是理论家和生态学家持续感兴趣的主题。该项目拟研究疟疾等某些病媒-宿主疾病的空间传播，并希望该研究有助于了解西尼罗河病毒和禽流感等其他病媒传播疾病的建立和传播。由抗微生物剂耐药细菌（ARB）如耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌（MRSA）和耐万古霉素肠球菌（VRE）在医院中引起的流行病在全世界范围内正在增加。大约5-10%的住院患者会发生与住院直接相关的感染。这些感染导致美国每年超过90，000人死亡。据估计，70%的致病病原体对一种或多种抗菌药物具有耐药性。该项目还研究了具有抗生素耐药性的医院内流行病，这将有助于提供一些控制措施，以打击医院内的此类流行病。