Quantitative genetic models of vital rate evolution in age-structured populations

用来预测人口比率进化变化的模型假设人口随时间保持稳定。但大多数真实的人口都违背了这一假设。例如，在人口方面，在过去的两个世纪里，人口统计学家目睹了存活率的急剧上升和生殖率的同样急剧下降。我们需要新的、更现实的年龄结构种群进化模型。这个项目的中心目标是开发这样一个模型。该模型将依赖于过去半个世纪发展起来的一套理论定量遗传工具，但迄今尚未应用于与人口统计学相关的问题。这项工作将在各个层面上证明是有价值的贡献。大量的进化理论建立在年龄结构种群的进化模型之上。这里提出的新的和更一般的模型将有助于我们进一步理解许多基本的进化问题，包括衰老生物学、宿主-寄生虫相互作用和合作起源的研究。这些都是对人口有直接影响的问题，使这项工作具有更广泛的意义。

Models that are designed to predict evolutionary changes in demographic rates assume that populations are stable over time. But most real populations violate this assumption. For example, in human populations, over the past two centuries demographers have witnessed a dramatic increase in survival rates and an equally dramatic decline in reproductive rates. New and more realistic models for evolution in age-structured populations are needed. This project has as its central aim the development of such a model. The model will rely on a set of theoretical quantitative genetic tools that have been developed over the past half century, but which have not hitherto been applied to questions related to demography.This work should prove a valuable contribution on a variety of levels. A large body of evolutionary theory rests on models of evolution in age-structured populations. The new and more general model proposed here will help further our understanding of numerous fundamental evolutionary questions, including studies on the biology of aging, host-parasite interactions, and the origin of cooperation. These are all problems with direct impact on human populations, lending broader significance to this work.