Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Third Wave Reversed: Undercurrents of Authoritarianism in the Former Soviet Union

政治学博士论文研究：第三次浪潮的逆转：前苏联威权主义的暗流

• 批准号: 0720106
• 负责人: Susan Stokes
• 金额: $ 1.2万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-08-01 至 2009-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0720106&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

This research seeks to explain the conditions under which citizens in several post-Soviet nations prefer more or less authoritarian forms of government in order to understand why democratic transitions ultimately fail or succeed, as this research argues that the public's preferences are a central factor in determining whether or not democracy can survive. While the broader research program explores these issues in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Estonia, this project conducts nationwide surveys of 2,000 respondents in Ukraine and 1,500 respondents in Belarus. The survey data will be combined with sub-national economic data to allow statistical analysis of the individual and community-level attributes that shape preferences for authoritarianism and to conduct cross-national comparisons with the other post-Soviet countries. Unlike existing research on authoritarianism, this research explores the often-overlooked "demand side" of authoritarianism from the citizenry. Because the countries studied have met a minimal level of democratic governance in the post-Soviet era, understanding the factors that lead citizens in these nations to elect authoritarian leaders is an important aspect of regime transitions. Early examinations of democratization naively assumed that the post-Soviet states were developing toward democracy, ignoring the possibility that reverse transitions to authoritarianism were possible. Furthermore, literature on the breakdown of authoritarian regimes focuses on cataclysmic events such as coups and revolutions that replace previous regimes "from above." This project provides a theory of when citizens enable, tolerate, and prefer authoritarian rule in weakly democratic countries. Finally, the surveys conducted in this study will fill a void in research on democratization by providing questions that researchers can use to examine people's attitudes toward authoritarian government.Broader Impact In addition to advancing the political science scholarship on regime transitions and generating new data on topics that have been previously understudied, this research can have important impact beyond the academic realm. The question of why democracy succeeds in some contexts and fails in others is very important to academics and policymakers alike. Yet this question takes on increased significance in the current era when the United States is attempting to create new democracies in areas that have a history of authoritarian rule. Research into the demands by the citizenry for authoritarian forms of government not only allows policymakers to realistically evaluate the probability of successful democratization in the future, but also allows them to formulate policies that give democracy the strongest probability of success. Thus, the broader impact of this research has the potential to inform central aspects of foreign policy.

这项研究旨在解释的条件下，在几个后苏联国家的公民更喜欢或多或少的专制形式的政府，以了解为什么民主过渡最终失败或成功，因为这项研究认为，公众的偏好是一个核心因素，在确定是否民主可以生存。 虽然更广泛的研究计划在俄罗斯，乌克兰，白俄罗斯和爱沙尼亚探索这些问题，但该项目在乌克兰对2，000名受访者和白俄罗斯的1，500名受访者进行了全国性调查。 调查数据将与国家以下各级的经济数据相结合，以便对个人和社区一级的属性进行统计分析，这些属性决定了对威权主义的偏好，并与其他后苏联国家进行跨国比较。与现有的权威主义研究不同，本研究探讨了经常被忽视的公民权威主义的“需求方”。 由于所研究的国家在后苏联时代达到了最低程度的民主治理，因此了解导致这些国家公民选举独裁领导人的因素是政权过渡的一个重要方面。早期对民主化的研究天真地假设后苏联国家正在向民主发展，忽视了向威权主义逆转的可能性。 此外，关于独裁政权崩溃的文献集中在灾难性事件，如政变和革命，取代了以前的政权“从上面。“这个项目提供了一个理论，当公民允许，容忍，并喜欢在弱民主国家的独裁统治。 最后，通过本研究的调查，可以为研究者提供可以用来考察人们对威权政府态度的问题，从而填补民主化研究的空白。影响范围更广本研究不仅可以推进政权更迭的政治学研究，还可以为以往研究不足的课题提供新的数据，在学术领域之外也会产生重要的影响。 为什么民主在某些情况下成功而在另一些情况下失败，这个问题对学者和政策制定者都非常重要。 然而，在当前这个时代，当美国试图在有独裁统治历史的地区建立新的民主国家时，这个问题变得更加重要。 研究公民对威权政府形式的需求不仅使决策者能够现实地评估未来民主化成功的可能性，而且还使他们能够制定使民主获得最大成功可能性的政策。 因此，这项研究的广泛影响有可能为外交政策的核心方面提供信息。