Joint Sino-German-Project: Impacts of Land Use and Management Practices on Water Resources under Climate Change in the Haihe River Basin, China

在高度发达的流域，如海河流域，了解气候变化和土地利用变化对水文-生物地球化学循环和水资源的时空格局的影响具有重要意义。为抵消这些对水文循环和水资源的影响，在区域土地利用方面实施最佳管理做法和政策方针至关重要。这项联合提案的目标是：1)估计气候变化和土地利用变化对水文循环和水资源的影响，包括其不确定性；2)为政策制定者提供关于海河流域生物多样性管理计划和政策方针的建议。我们将收集现有的气象和水文数据，并审查目前的土地使用管理做法和政策方针。将以高空间和时间分辨率收集额外的水质数据。我们将建立和校准一个由6个不同复杂性的水文模型(CMF、WetSpa、SWIM/SWAT、HBVN-D、INCA和LASCAM)组成的集成模型集成框架，这些模型能够预测水量和水质。观测到的水质和其他软数据将在后验拒绝框架中使用，以改进过程理解和模型结构。将估计所有模型的随机和结构性不确定性，以提供预测的全球变化影响的可靠范围。我们将制定和分析土地利用变化情景和最佳管理实践，以及它们在当前和气候变化条件下对水文生物地球化学循环的影响。在综合方法中，我们将把所有模型应用于不同的变化情景，以便预测和评估集水区水资源的潜在变化。最后，将根据情景评估和不确定性分析的结果，为该区域提出适当的土地使用管理做法和政策方针的建议。

Understanding the impacts of climate change and land use change on the spatio-temporal patterns of the hydro-biogeochemical cycle and water resources is of major importance in highly developed watersheds such as the Haihe River basin. Implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs) and Policy Approaches in regional land use is essential in order to counteract these impacts on hydrological cycle and water resources. The goals of this joint proposal are 1) to provide estimates of the behaviour of the hydrological cycle and water resources due to climate change and land use change including their uncertainties, and 2) to provide recommendations on BMP and policy approaches in the Haihe River basin for policy makers. We will collect existing meteorological and hydrological data and review current land use management practices and policy approaches. Additional water quality data will be collected in high spatial and temporal resolution. We will setup and calibrate an integrated model ensemble framework that consists of 6 hydrological models of different complexity (CMF, WetSpa, SWIM/SWAT, HBV-N-D, INCA, and LASCAM) which are able to predict water quantity and quality. Observed water quality and other soft data will be used in an a posteriori rejectionist framework to improve process understanding and model structure. Stochastic and structural uncertainty of all models will be estimated to provide reliable ranges of projected global change impact. We will develop and analyze land use change scenarios and Best Management Practices and their impacts on the hydro-biogeochemical cycle under current and climate change conditions. In an integrated approach, we will apply all models to the different change scenarios in order to project and evaluate potential changes of water resources in the catchment area. Finally, recommendations of appropriate land use management practices and policy approaches for the region will be made based on the results of scenario assessments and uncertainty analysis.