CNH: Collaborative Research: Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change: A System Dynamics Analysis

在世界各地的城市中，暴露在高温下是对人类健康和福祉的重大威胁。城市化与“热岛”的形成密切相关，“热岛”指的是建筑物、混凝土和其他人类活动产生的辐射热导致的温度较高的地方。随着全球变暖的未来趋势，这种局部影响可能会加剧。以前的研究表明，城市穷人最容易受到极端高温的影响，但人们对不断变化的城市气候与人-自然耦合系统之间的相互作用知之甚少，人-自然系统在社区和家庭的更精细空间尺度上放大或减轻了不同社会经济和种族/民族群体的气候相关危害。考虑到城市增长和气候变化的全球趋势，该项目调查了亚利桑那州凤凰城大都市区内与高温有关的人类脆弱性变化的原因。凤凰城是这项研究的理想实验室，它的气候自然炎热干燥。在过去的50年里，快速的城市化使夏季夜间的平均温度上升了5摄氏度。这项研究将解释复杂的城市热“风险图景”的特征，评估不同社区的人们对与热有关的健康危害的脆弱性，并确定城市内脆弱性变化的原因。生态、气象、社会学和医疗数据将被用来建立一个综合的气候变化脆弱性系统动力学模型，该模型纳入了人类适应的实质性反馈机制。研究人员将使用该模型来测试关于人类对环境的操纵和诱导的气候反应之间复杂互动的假设，探索社区和区域动态之间的关系，并预测未来的替代情景。研究结果将被用于设计替代社区景观和社区应对机制，以减少脆弱性，并设计关于气候和健康的教学和学习计划。这项研究中使用的创新方法技术包括开发精细的地表能量平衡模型，以在空间和时间尺度上整合和扩展气候研究；将航空和卫星遥感数据与嵌套在最先进的全球气候模型输出中的气象模型相结合；对热风险和与热相关的疾病进行空间分析；以及社区参与式研究低收入和少数族裔社区的应对策略。在快速城市化和变暖的世界中，应对可持续发展的挑战将取决于允许人类控制或适应不断上升的城市气温的决策。该项目将确定高危环境的社区和人口标志，决策者可以利用这些标志来开发空间知情的早期预警系统和中暑预防计划。对未来影响特定地区和人口亚群的与热有关的脆弱性和人类反应的分布进行模型预测对几个大陆的城市来说很重要，因为全球正在发生不断扩大的热岛、更高的温度以及相关的对健康的不利影响。模型结果将在可视化环境中显示，这将使利益攸关方能够审查替代的未来脆弱性情景；这将使社区能够获得知识，并促进更好的决策。将为低收入和少数群体设计教育活动，包括制作一期儿童杂志，主题为“人与气候”，将惠及千家万户。当地居民、大学生和项目调查人员将参与合作的社区参与研究，以促进凤凰城市中心社区的热灾缓解。信息和材料将与许多城市的城市规划者和卫生机构共享。

Exposure to excessive heat is a significant threat to human health and well-being in cities around the world. Urbanization is strongly linked to increasing temperatures through the formation of "heat islands" - places with higher temperatures due to radiant heat from buildings, concrete, and other human activities. Such local effects are likely to intensify with future trends in global warming. Previous studies have shown that the urban poor are most vulnerable to extreme heat, but little is known about the interplay between changing urban climates and the coupled human-natural systems that amplify or mitigate climate-related hazards for different socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups at finer spatial scales of neighborhoods and households. Taking account of global trends in urban growth and climate change, this project investigates the causes of variation in heat-related human vulnerability within the metropolitan region of Phoenix, Arizona. An ideal laboratory for this research, Phoenix has a naturally hot, arid climate. Rapid urbanization has increased average summer nighttime temperature by five degrees Celsius during the past 50 years. The research will explain the character of complex urban heat "riskscapes", assess the vulnerability of people in different neighborhoods to heat-related health hazards, and identify the causes of variation of vulnerability within cities. Ecological, meteorological, sociological, and medical treatment data will be used to build an integrated system dynamics model of vulnerability to climate change that incorporates substantial feedback mechanisms from human adaptations. Researchers will use the model to test hypotheses about complex interactions between human manipulation of the environment and induced climate response, to explore relationships between neighborhood and regional dynamics, and to forecast alternative future scenarios. The results will be used to devise alternative neighborhood landscapes and community coping mechanisms that can reduce vulnerability, and to design programs for teaching and learning about climate and health. Innovative methodological techniques used in this study are developing fine-scale, surface energy balance models for integrating and extending climate research over spatial and temporal scales; combining airborne and satellite remotely sensed data with a meteorological model nested in state-of-the-art global climate model output; conducting spatial analyses of heat riskscapes and heat-related illnesses; and community-participatory research on coping strategies in low-income and minority neighborhoods.Meeting the challenges of sustainability in a rapidly urbanizing and warming world will depend on decisions that allow humans to control or adapt to rising urban temperatures. This project will identify community and demographic markers of high-risk environments that decision-makers can use to develop spatially informed early warning systems and heat-illness prevention programs. Model projections for the distribution of future heat-related vulnerabilities and human responses that impact particular places and population subgroups are important for cities on several continents because enlarging heat islands, higher temperatures, and associated adverse impacts on health are occurring globally. Model results will be displayed in a visualization environment that will allow stakeholders to examine alternative future vulnerability scenarios; this will make knowledge accessible to the community and promote better decision-making. Educational activities will be designed for low-income and minority populations, including the production of a children's magazine issue on "people and climate" that will reach thousands of households. Local residents, university students, and project investigators will engage in collaborative community-participation research to promote heat-hazard mitigation in inner-city Phoenix neighborhoods. Information and materials will be shared with city planners and health agencies in many cities.