Type I - LOI#L02170258 - Collaborative Research: Assessing Decadal Climate Change Impacts on Urban Populations in the Southwestern USA

I 型 - LOI

• 批准号: 1049224
• 负责人: George Jenerette
• 金额: $ 14.7万
• 依托单位: University of California-Riverside
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2015-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049224&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Type; LOI#L02170258; Collaborative; Research; Assessing

In the cities of the southwestern United States, regional warming combined with increasing urban populations and the resulting urban heat effect are straining limited supplies of electricity and water. Cities can be designed that are more resilient, minimizing human impacts and energy and water stresses, under scenarios of decadal warming trends. However, improved micro-scale climate models that resolve urban landscape hydrology, vegetation dynamics and patch-scale water and energy balances are needed to support the design of these resilient urban systems; funds are provided to create and validate a modeling system capable of resolving these dynamics. The tRIBS land surface hydrology model will be modified for urban environments and coupled with the vertically nested WRF 3.2 mesoscale and microclimate model. The combined model will be used to test the efficacy of different urban green-space and neighborhood designs under climate change scenarios with respect to the water and energy balance, demand for and optimal application of irrigation water, patch-scale air temperatures and humidities, and urban flooding responses. This newly coupled model will transform the design of urban neighborhoods to be quantifiably more adaptive and resilient to all types of decadal climate change. This study will demonstrate the technical feasibility, empirical validity, and computational tractability of this approach using neighborhoods in Phoenix, AZ as case studies. The microclimate predictions of the model will be useful to predict neighborhood-level human health and social impacts, water and energy use, urban heat island effects, and urban flooding, in neighborhoods in cities around the world. The potential social benefits of this research include a research tool that can empirically validate, quantitative design of urban neighborhoods that are more resilient to climate change and other future challenges (i.e. water or energy shortages), allows the optimization of neighborhoods that minimize water and energy use, mitigate heat island impacts, and improve social and health outcomes. This modeling tool can change cities by making them adaptive by design.

在美国西南部的城市，区域变暖、城市人口增加以及由此产生的城市热效应使有限的电力和水供应变得紧张。在十年变暖趋势的情景下，可以设计出更具弹性的城市，将人类影响以及能源和水资源压力降至最低。然而，需要改进的微型气候模型来解决城市景观水文学、植被动态以及斑块尺度的水和能量平衡问题，以支持这些具有复原力的城市系统的设计；提供资金以建立和验证能够解决这些动态的建模系统。TRIBS陆面水文模式将针对城市环境进行修改，并与垂直嵌套的WRF 3.2中尺度和小气候模式相结合。该组合模型将用于测试不同城市绿地和社区设计在气候变化情景下在水和能量平衡、灌溉水的需求和最佳应用、斑块尺度的气温和湿度以及城市洪水响应方面的效果。这一新的耦合模型将改变城市社区的设计，使其在数量上更能适应和适应所有类型的十年气候变化。这项研究将以亚利桑那州凤凰城的社区为案例，论证该方法的技术可行性、经验有效性和计算可操作性。该模型的小气候预测将有助于预测世界各地城市社区的社区水平的人类健康和社会影响、水和能源使用、城市热岛效应和城市洪水。这项研究的潜在社会效益包括一种研究工具，可以对气候变化和其他未来挑战(如水资源或能源短缺)更具弹性的城市社区进行实证验证、量化设计，允许优化社区，最大限度地减少水和能源的使用，减轻热岛影响，并改善社会和健康结果。这个建模工具可以通过使城市在设计上自适应来改变城市。