Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Government Concessions to Irregular Politics, Violence, and Insurgency

政府什么时候会因叛乱暴力而做出让步？这些让步什么时候才能结束暴力？本项目将从印度语言群体自治运动的角度探讨这些问题。许多少数民族语言群体在印度境内寻求自己的领土实体，这种运动产生了几次叛乱。这项研究表明，这些案例违背了一个普遍的假设，即当政府不能在消耗战中击败叛乱分子时，就会产生让步。相反，政府面临的关键战略困境是，一旦政府从冲突易发地区撤出军事存在，如何找到有足够资源维持和平的地方政治行为体。当政府认为叛乱领导人比其他地方政治强人更有权力时，就会发生让步。 这些假设将通过使用印度所有语言群体的定量数据进行评估。该数据集将在未来18个月内汇编。此外，该项目还将利用对印度东北部正在进行的语言自治运动的为期3个月的实地研究。智力重要性：对国内冲突的跨国研究成功地确定了一些增加针对国家的暴力风险的因素。这些研究对于解释往往以一方的军事胜利告终的大规模叛乱特别有力。 然而，许多内部冲突，包括对国际社会最重要的冲突，都是高度不对称的，往往以谈判解决结束。然而，对不对称暴力的让步在最近的经验主义内战文献中并没有涉及。 该项目还涉及叛乱理论文献的局限性。对小规模内战的分析通常是基于这样一种假设，即这些战争是消耗战。对叛乱采取强制性的反应往往被认为是表明政府的决心。然而，消耗战理论存在着已知的分析和实证问题，本项目提供了一种对小规模内战政治的替代分析。成果和更广泛的影响：该项目将解决政策分析人员和学术界的关切。该研究还将聘请印度研究生作为研究助理，这将为当地学生增加对政治学的实际参与创造新的机会。

When do governments make concessions as a result of insurgent violence? When do those concessions end the violence? This project examines these questions in regard to language-groups' autonomy movements in India. Numerous minority language groups have sought their own territorial entities within India and several insurgencies have grown out of such movements. This study shows that these cases defy the common assumption that concessions result when governments cannot out-last insurgents in a war of attrition. Rather, the key strategic dilemma for the government is to identify local political actors with sufficient resources to keep peace once the government withdraws its military presence from the conflict-prone area. Concessions occur when the government believes an insurgent leader is more powerful than other local political strongmen. The hypotheses will be evaluated through the use of quantitative data on all of India's language groups. This dataset will be compiled over the next 18 months. In addition, the project will draw on a 3-month field study of an ongoing linguistic autonomy movement in Northeast India. Intellectual importance: Cross-national study of internal conflict has succeeded in identifying a number of factors that increase the risk of violence against the state. These studies are particularly powerful for explaining large rebellions that tend to end in military victory by one side. Many internal conflicts, including those most important to the international community, that are highly asymmetric, however, tend to end in negotiated settlement. Yet, concessions to asymmetric violence have not been addressed in the recent empirical civil war literature. This project also addresses the limitations of the theoretical literature on insurgency. Analysis of small civil wars is generally based on the presumption that these are wars of attrition. Coercive responses to rebellion are often advocated on the grounds that they demonstrate the resolve of the government. There are known analytical and empirical problems with war of attrition theories, however, and this project offers an alternative analysis of the politics of small civil war. Outcomes and broader impacts: This project will address concerns of both policy analysts and academics. The study will also hire Indian graduate students as research assistants, which will create new opportunities for local students to increase their practical involvement in political science.