HSD: Market Integration and Climate as Drivers of Change in the Mexican Maize System: Multi-Scale Interactions in Livelihood and Land-Use Change

HSD：市场一体化和气候作为墨西哥玉米系统变化的驱动因素：生计和土地利用变化的多尺度相互作用

• 批准号: 0826871
• 负责人: Stuart Sweeney
• 金额: $ 62.73万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-15 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0826871&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: HSD; Market; Integration; Climate; Drivers

Understanding the sensitivity of food systems to global change is limited by high uncertainties associated with the cross-scale interactions between the natural environment and the cultural landscape. Defining what might be within a suite of plausible futures requires a baseline scenario that captures the factors that are most significant in shaping decisions at different levels of governance, and which highlights the current, changing and interacting sensitivities of the system to stressors associated with both climate change and economic and cultural globalization. This project will create such a baseline by assessing the drivers and evolving social outcomes of one of the world's most important food systems: the Mexican maize system. Building on prior research that anticipates climate change will have negative impacts for Mexican maize production, and the globalization of agricultural markets is further challenging the future of maize in Mexico, an interdisciplinary team of social and biophysical scientists will investigate Mexican agricultural vulnerability in terms of a complex food system, in which individual decisions to plant or not to plant maize are hypothesized to manifest as landscape scale transformations. The research team also expects that global to regional price signals and climatic variability will affect local food production and land use outcomes differently across the Mexican landscape, as a function of regionally-specific cultural, economic, demographic, ecological and political factors. The project involves: a) a description of the changing national geography of maize production and the associated socioeconomic, institutional, and demographic correlates; b) an analysis of climate trends and variability as related to maize production, yields and water availability for irrigated farming; c) an econometric analysis of the spatial patterns of maize price volatility in three maize-producing states in order to evaluate the contribution of maize price volatility to farm-level risk and d) an evaluation of the drivers (e.g., prices and climate) and outcomes (land use, perceptions of food quality, and household maize expenditures) of maize abandonment / persistence at the farm-level through case studies in the states of Sinaloa, Mexico and Chiapas. A combination of approaches will be used, including exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), econometrics analysis (spatial, time-series, and spatial panels), agro-climatic analyses, and household livelihood surveys.This interdisciplinary and multi-method project involves experts in economic geography, econometrics, spatial analysis, livelihood assessment, climatology, agroecology and public policy in Mexico and the United States. It will provide the foundation for subsequent research on the development of scenarios of future social-ecological change and vulnerability of food security in Mexico. The project consolidates a strong international collaborative research community, involving Arizona State University, University of California Santa Barbara, the Colegio de Mexico (Mexico City), the Colegio de la Frontera Sur (Chiapas), and the National Institute of Forestry, Agriculture and Livestock Research (INIFAP, Mexico City). The project aims to enhance this network throughout the project's implementation, by inviting Mexican experts external to the project to participate in part of the annual project coordination meetings to share their research and insights. Graduate students from the U.S. institutions will collaborate with research counterparts in Mexico. The approaches and findings from the project will be used as case material for graduate and undergraduate courses in earth system science, regional analysis, development economics and sustainable food systems. The diagnostic and analytical results of this project will be disseminated through a variety of forums to maize policy experts of the national agricultural secretary (SAGARPA), state agriculture ministries in Sinaloa, State of Mexico and Chiapas, non-governmental organizations interested in land use change and maize diversity, and to the academic communities in Mexico and the U.S. The project's results will also be disseminated to Mexican authorities responsible for climate change initiatives nationally in order to contribute to the efforts of these agencies to comply with international climate change agendas.

理解粮食系统对全球变化的敏感性受到与自然环境和文化景观之间的跨尺度相互作用相关的高度不确定性的限制。要确定一套合理的未来可能是什么，需要有一个基线情景，以捕捉在不同治理层面上影响决策的最重要因素，并突出系统对与气候变化以及经济和文化全球化相关的压力源的当前、不断变化和相互作用的敏感性。该项目将通过评估世界上最重要的粮食系统之一-墨西哥玉米系统-的驱动因素和不断演变的社会结果，建立这样一个基线。基于先前的研究，预计气候变化将对墨西哥玉米生产产生负面影响，农业市场的全球化正在进一步挑战墨西哥玉米的未来，一个由社会和生物物理科学家组成的跨学科小组将调查墨西哥农业在复杂粮食系统方面的脆弱性，其中种植或不种植玉米的个人决定被假设为表现为景观尺度的变化。研究小组还预计，全球到区域的价格信号和气候变化将影响当地的粮食生产和土地利用结果不同的墨西哥景观，作为一个功能的区域特定的文化，经济，人口，生态和政治因素。该项目涉及：a）描述玉米生产的国家地理变化以及相关的社会经济、制度和人口相关因素; B）分析与玉米生产、产量和灌溉农业用水有关的气候趋势和变化;（c）对三种玉米价格波动的空间格局进行计量经济学分析-生产国，以评估玉米价格波动对农场风险的影响，以及d）评估驱动因素（例如，通过对锡那罗亚、墨西哥和恰帕斯州的案例研究，分析了玉米在农场一级的废弃/持续性（价格和气候）和结果（土地利用、对粮食质量的看法和家庭玉米支出）。将综合使用各种方法，包括探索性空间数据分析、计量经济学分析（空间、时间序列和空间小组）、农业气候分析和家庭生计调查，这一跨学科和多方法项目涉及墨西哥和美国的经济地理学、计量经济学、空间分析、生计评估、气候学、农业生态学和公共政策方面的专家。它将为今后研究墨西哥未来社会生态变化和粮食安全脆弱性的设想提供基础。该项目巩固了强大的国际合作研究社区，涉及亚利桑那州立大学、加州大学圣巴巴拉分校、墨西哥学院（墨西哥城）、南部边疆学院（恰帕斯州）以及国家林业、农业和畜牧研究所（INIFAP，墨西哥城）。该项目旨在通过邀请项目外部的墨西哥专家参加部分年度项目协调会议，分享他们的研究和见解，在整个项目执行过程中加强这一网络。来自美国机构的研究生将与墨西哥的研究同行合作。该项目的方法和研究结果将用作地球系统科学、区域分析、发展经济学和可持续粮食系统的研究生和本科生课程的案例材料。该项目的诊断和分析结果将通过各种论坛传播给国家农业部长、锡那罗亚州、墨西哥州和恰帕斯州的农业部的玉米政策专家，以及对土地使用变化和玉米多样性感兴趣的非政府组织，该项目的成果还将分发给墨西哥负责全国气候变化倡议的当局，以促进这些机构努力遵守国际气候变化议程。