Collaborative Research: Predictability of the Physical Climate System

合作研究：物理气候系统的可预测性

• 批准号: 0830068
• 负责人: James Kinter
• 金额: $ 720.23万
• 依托单位: Institute of Global Environment and Society
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2014-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0830068&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Predictability; Physical; Climate

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Research by the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) will continue andexpand the investigation of seasonal-to-interannual predictability in a changing climate, focusing on realizable predictability of the current climate, including the influence of global change - changing greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosols and land use - on the interactive ocean-atmosphere-landcryosphere system. A comprehensive predictability framework, grounded in information theory, will be further developed to understand the contributions to predictability from the initial state, the high and low frequency atmospheric transients, the coupling of climate system components, and global change. The role of the land surface and its couplings to the atmosphere and oceans, the predictability of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ENSO response, intrinsic vs. externally-forced variations in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, the global hydrologic cycle, monsoons and North American drought, and the predictability of the statistics of weather and climate extremes will be specifically addressed.The scope of work will be extended to investigate the predictability of decadal variations to determine (1) whether or not shifts in the probability distribution of ENSO, or of seasonal anomalies in general, are predictable at decadal lead times, (2) the limits of decadal predictability, and (3) the effects of global change. The question of how the predictability of the natural modes of variability may change in conjunction with the global change is particularly relevant for providing regionally specific informationon future climate and depends critically on the simulation capabilities of climate models. The long-term goal will be to help establish the scientific foundations for dynamic decadal climate prediction.This work will employ the national climate models supported by NSF, NOAA, and NASA, including the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Climate Forecast System (CFS), the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and the GFDL models, with efforts to identify the strengths and weaknesses of individual models and to optimally combine them (both a priori and a posteriori). The prospect of much higher resolutions in these global models is of critical importance. The research will also include initial efforts directed toward process-resolving models for climate prediction incollaboration with CMMAP, both for the purposes of predictability/prediction studies and to evaluate the efficacy of resolved vs. parameterized clouds in global climate models. The ways in which model deficiencies are limiting the ability to both quantify predictability and realize skillful climate predictions will be examined. Maximum advantage will be taken of each model's individual strengths and uniqueness, including its niche in the nation's climate modeling agenda, and feedback at scientific andoperational levels will be provided to each of the modeling groups.BROADER IMPACTWhile COLA's primary focus is basic research, its establishment as a national center, its strategic partnerships and its open policies make COLA a national resource. The Committee on Strategic Guidance for NSF's Support of the Atmospheric Sciences (2007) found that COLA's efforts to understand climate predictability, to provide national leadership in climate research, and to provide information technology infrastructure are important contributors to the nation's multi-agency goals for global climate variabilityand change and better climate forecast services. COLA activities have broader impacts beyond basic Research via publications, education, seminars and workshops, advisory and review panels, and software and information services making a difference in several key areas, including:o Contributions to the Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Reporto Educating the next generation of climate scientists through a PhD program in strategic partnership with George Mason University as well as a high school internship programo The distinguished scientific lectures program that is well attended by Washington, DC-area scientists and students, and the joint COLA-CPC "Climate Test Bed (CPC) Seminar Series"o On-site and external workshops, including workshops organized for the Sloan Foundation and the International Centre for Theoretical Physics and the May 2008 World Modeling Summit for Climate Predictiono Active membership and leadership of national and international panels of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), NSF, AGU, US CLImate VARiability and predictability program (CLIIVAR), the Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment (GEWEX), NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) and Climate Test Bed (CTB), the CCSM, the NSF STC Multi Scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP), that International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), and the national TeraGrido Distributing weather and climate software and information, including GrADS and GDS - free, open-source software that is fully supported by COLA (www.iges.org/grads/grads.html)

该奖项根据 2009 年《美国复苏和再投资法案》（公法 111-5）提供资金。海洋-陆地-大气研究中心 (COLA) 的研究将继续并扩大气候变化中季节到年际可​​预测性的调查，重点关注当前气候的可实现可预测性，包括全球变化（不断变化的温室气体浓度、气溶胶和土地利用）对交互作用的影响。 海洋-大气-陆地冰冻圈系统。将进一步开发以信息论为基础的综合可预测性框架，以了解初始状态、高频和低频大气瞬变、气候系统组成部分的耦合和全球变化对可预测性的贡献。将具体讨论陆地表面及其与大气和海洋的耦合、厄尔尼诺和南方涛动（ENSO）的可预测性以及ENSO响应、大西洋和印度洋的内在与外部强迫变化、全球水文循环、季风和北美干旱，以及天气和气候极端事件统计的可预测性。工作范围将扩展到 研究年代际变化的可预测性，以确定 (1) ENSO 或一般季节性异常的概率分布变化是否可以在年代际提前时间内预测，(2) 年代际可预测性的极限，以及 (3) 全球变化的影响。自然变率模式的可预测性如何随着全球变化而变化的问题对于提供有关未来气候的区域特定信息特别重要，并且在很大程度上取决于气候模型的模拟能力。长期目标是帮助建立动态年代际气候预测的科学基础。这项工作将采用NSF、NOAA和NASA支持的国家气候模型，包括社区气候系统模型（CCSM）、气候预报系统（CFS）、戈达德地球观测系统（GEOS）模型和GFDL模型，努力识别各个模型的优缺点并优化模型 将它们结合起来（先验和后验）。这些全球模型中分辨率更高的前景至关重要。该研究还将包括针对与 CMMAP 合作的气候预测过程解析模型的初步努力，既用于可预测性/预测研究的目的，又用于评估全球气候模型中解析云与参数化云的有效性。将研究模型缺陷如何限制量化可预测性和实现熟练气候预测的能力。将最大限度地利用每个模型的各自优势和独特性，包括其在国家气候建模议程中的地位，并向每个建模小组提供科学和操作层面的反馈。 更广泛的影响 虽然 COLA 的主要重点是基础研究，但其作为国家中心的建立、战略伙伴关系和开放政策使 COLA 成为国家资源。 NSF 支持大气科学战略指导委员会（2007 年）发现，COLA 在了解气候可预测性、在气候研究方面发挥国家领导作用以及提供信息技术基础设施方面所做的努力，对国家实现全球气候变率和变化以及更好的气候预报服务的多机构目标做出了重要贡献。 COLA 活动通过出版物、教育、研讨会和讲习班、咨询和审查小组以及软件和信息服务，在基础研究之外产生更广泛的影响，在几个关键领域产生影响，包括： o 对政府间气候变化计划第四次评估报告的贡献 o 通过与乔治梅森大学战略合作的博士项目以及高中实习项目教育下一代气候科学家 o 杰出的科学讲座项目 华盛顿特区科学家和学生出席，以及 COLA-CPC 联合“气候试验台 (CPC) 研讨会系列” o 现场和外部研讨会，包括为斯隆基金会和国际理论物理中心组织的研讨会以及 2008 年 5 月的世界气候预测模拟峰会 o 世界气候研究计划 (WCRP)、NSF、AGU、 美国气候变化和可预测性计划 (CLIIVAR)、全球能源和水循环实验 (GEWEX)、NOAA 应用研究中心 (ARC) 和气候试验台 (CTB)、CCSM、NSF STC 大气过程多尺度模拟 (CMMAP)、国际理论物理中心 (ICTP) 以及国家 TeraGrido 分发天气和气候软件和信息，包括 GrADS 和 GDS - 由 COLA 完全支持的免费开源软件 (www.iges.org/grads/grads.html)