EAGER: An International, Dedicated High-End Collaborative Project to Revolutionize Climate Modeling

EAGER：一个致力于彻底改变气候建模的国际专用高端合作项目

• 批准号: 0957884
• 负责人: James Kinter
• 金额: $ 25万
• 依托单位: Institute of Global Environment and Society
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-15 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0957884&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAGER; International; Dedicated; End; Collaborative

Atmospheric convection must be parameterized in present day global climate models because available dedicated computational resources have not been sufficient to run the models at fine enough resolution to simulate convection explicitly. This project will explore whether dedicated high-end computing support for ultra high resolution experiments can truly accelerate progress in the area of climate modeling. The approach will be three-pronged:1. State-of-the-art high-resolution numerical weather prediction models will be run on multi-year timescales to assess the impact of high resolution on systematic error. Specifically, global numerical weather prediction models will be run at 10-15 km resolution with 20th century forcings and analysis will be performed on the improved ability to simulate the statistics of weather, including severe weather, with high resolution. As well as being relevant for the climate change problem, such integrations will be of importance to numerical weather prediction centers in guiding their future operational strategies on the need for high resolution models in monthly and seasonal forecast mode.2. Time-slice climate change simulations will be made using available climate models run at strikingly higher resolution than is typically used. Dedicated computational resources will be used to run state-of-the-art global models at 10-15 km resolution to produce simulations for the 20th and the 21st centuries. Analysis of these runs will be done, focusing on the impact of greenhouse gases on changes in the statistics of weather, extreme events and the hydrologic cycle, in comparison with identical runs made at 100-150 km resolution, downscaled to regional scales.3. Convection-permitting atmospheric models capable of resolving cloud systems in the atmosphere (4-8 km grids) and energetic eddies in the ocean (10 km grids) will be used to evaluate the impact of resolving these processes on simulation of seasonal climate. In particular, global cloud-system-resolving atmospheric models will be used in two-tier, regionally-coupled mode to produce a series of hindcasts to be compared with hindcasts made using conventional resolution models. The predicted surface fluxes of heat, momentum and fresh water will be used to drive an eddy-resolving ocean model, to determine if the simulated ocean climate is significantly different from that simulated using coarser resolution fluxes.An international team of experts has formed to contribute models, advice on experimental design, and effort to run and evaluate the model simulations. The research has strong potential to be transformative and influence the future directions of computational geo-fluid-dynamics. The research is exploratory, the work is in its early stages and untested on the time and spatial scales consistent with climate process physics and dynamics. It is therefore, high-risk-high payoff research. Broader Impact: The international weather and climate modeling community came together in 2008 at the World Modeling Summit (WMS) to reach a consensus that the time is ripe to revolutionize the application of numerical models for prediction of climate through the development of seamless prediction methodologies which unify the weather and climate forecast problems. The rationale includes: a. a recognition that the climate models of the current generation have reached a plateau in their ability to simulate salient features of Earth's climate,b. a societal demand for reducing the uncertainty in projections of climate change in the future,c. a complementary demand for greater spatial discrimination in the climate changes that may be anticipated in the next 30 years, especially concerning changes in extreme events, andd. a hypothesis that resolving important processes in the atmosphere and ocean and at the land surface, as well as interactions among them, as is already the case in weather prediction models, can dramatically improve the fidelity of the models.

在当今的全球气候模式中，大气对流必须被参数化，因为可用的专用计算资源不足以以足够精细的分辨率运行模式来显式地模拟对流。该项目将探索为超高分辨率实验提供专用高端计算支持是否能够真正加速气候建模领域的进展。该方法将从三个方面入手：1.最先进的高分辨率数值天气预报模式将在多年时间尺度上运行，以评估高分辨率对系统误差的影响。具体地说，将使用具有20世纪强迫的10-15公里分辨率的全球数值天气预报模型，并将对改进的高分辨率模拟天气统计数据，包括恶劣天气的能力进行分析。除了与气候变化问题相关外，这种集成对于数值天气预报中心在指导其未来业务战略方面具有重要意义，这些业务战略需要高分辨率模式用于月度和季节预报模式。将使用现有的气候模型进行时间片气候变化模拟，这些模型的分辨率比通常使用的高得多。专用计算资源将用于运行分辨率为10-15公里的最先进的全球模型，以产生20世纪和21世纪的模拟。将对这些运行进行分析，重点是温室气体对天气、极端事件和水文循环统计数据变化的影响，并与分辨率为100-150公里、缩小到区域尺度的相同运行进行比较。将使用能够分辨大气中云系（4-8公里网格）和海洋中高能涡旋（10公里网格）的允许对流的大气模型来评价分辨这些过程对季节气候模拟的影响。特别是，全球云系分辨大气模式将以两层、区域耦合模式使用，以产生一系列后报，与使用传统分辨率模式进行的后报进行比较。预测的热量、动量和淡水的表面通量将被用来驱动一个涡旋分辨海洋模式，以确定模拟的海洋气候是否与使用较粗分辨率通量模拟的海洋气候有显著差异。一个国际专家小组已经成立，以提供模型，对实验设计提供建议，并努力运行和评估模式模拟。该研究具有很强的潜力是变革性的，并影响计算地球流体动力学的未来方向。 这项研究是探索性的，工作处于早期阶段，在与气候过程物理学和动力学相一致的时间和空间尺度上未经检验。 因此，这是一项高风险、高回报的研究。更广泛的影响：2008年，国际天气和气候模拟界聚集在世界模拟峰会（WMS）上达成共识，认为通过开发统一天气和气候预报问题的无缝预测方法来彻底改变数值模型在气候预测中的应用的时机已经成熟。基本原理包括：a.认识到当代气候模式在模拟地球气候显著特征的能力方面已经达到了一个平台，B. 社会需要减少未来气候变化预测的不确定性，c. 对未来30年可能出现的气候变化，特别是极端事件的变化，提出更大的空间区分的补充要求，d. 一种假设，即解决大气和海洋以及陆地表面的重要过程以及它们之间的相互作用，就像天气预测模型中已经存在的情况一样，可以大大提高模型的保真度。