Predictability and Prediction of Climate from Days to Decades

该奖项为海洋-陆地-大气研究中心（COLA）提供持续资助。 COLA是一个气候科学研究中心，旨在探索，建立和量化地球气候变化在季节到十年时间尺度上的可变性和可预测性，并收集这种可预测性以进行有益于社会的预测。 该中心由美国国家科学基金会、美国国家海洋和大气管理局和美国国家航空航天局共同资助，其主要工作包括：（1）对季节内、季节、年际和年代际时间尺度的可预测性进行基础研究;（2）评估美国国家气候模式的可预测性、技术和保真度;（3）为开发下一代无缝预测系统做出贡献。在项目1下进行的研究包括在多个模式中测试陆地数据同化方案，对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件进行后报，调查厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件之间的多样性，对印度季风进行动力学预测试验，并确定干旱概率对地面边界条件的依赖性，包括土地覆盖变化。 项目2下的工作重点是使用从信息理论分析中得出的最佳空间结构，这些结构代表最可预测的模式，或两种模式之间可预测性差异最大的模式。这项活动旨在支持美国国家中心的气候预测工作，并为COLA的研究到业务工作做出贡献。 第3项下的工作涉及美国国家海洋和大气管理局国家环境预测中心的合作者，包括开发初始化高分辨率耦合模式的最佳方法，包括耦合预报系统第二版（CFSv 2），这是国家环境预测中心业务使用的一个模式。考虑到气候多变性和变化的重大社会后果。 此外，COLA通过社区整合、教育、研讨会、讲习班以及软件和信息服务使美国气候研究企业受益。 COLA还在将关于可预测性和预测的基础气候科学研究成果转化为业务应用方面发挥重要作用。

This award provides continued funding for the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA). COLA is a climate science research center established to explore, establish and quantify the variability and predictability of Earth's climate variations on seasonal to decadal time scales, and to harvest this predictability for societally beneficial predictions. The Center is jointly funded by NSF, NOAA and NASA.Work supported through this award includes activities devoted to 1) basic research on predictability on intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales; 2) evaluation of the predictability, skill, and fidelity of US national climate models; and 3) contributions to the development of next generation seamless prediction systems. Research performed under item 1 includes testing of land data assimilation schemes in multiple models, performing hindcasts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events investigate inter-event diversity of ENSO, performing dynamical prediction experiments for the Indian monsoon, and determining the dependence of drought probability on surface boundary conditions including land cover change. Work under item 2 focuses on the use of optimal spatial structures derived from information theoretic analysis, which represent the most predictable modes, or modes for which predictability differs the most between two models. This activity is intended to support climate prediction efforts at US national centers and contribute to COLA's research-to-operations effort. Work under item 3 involves collaborators at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and includes the development of optimal methods of initializing high-resolution coupled models including version 2 of the Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2), a model used operationally at NCEP.The work has broader impacts due to its focus on research leading to improved climate prediction, given the substantial societal consequences of climate variability and change. In addition, COLA benefits the US climate research enterprise through community integration, education, seminars, workshops, and software and information services. COLA also serves an important function in transferring the results of basic climate science research on predictability and prediction into operational use.