Predictability and Prediction of Climate from Days to Decades

该奖项继续为海洋-陆地-大气研究中心(COLA)提供资金。COLA是一个气候科学研究中心，旨在探索、建立和量化地球气候变化在季节到十年的时间尺度上的可变性和可预测性，并为社会有益的预测收获这种可预测性。该中心由NSF、NOAA和NASA共同资助。该奖项支持的工作包括：1)关于季节内、季节、年际和年代际时间尺度的可预测性的基础研究；2)评估美国国家气候模型的可预测性、技能和保真度；以及3)对开发下一代无缝预测系统的贡献。在项目1下进行的研究包括在多个模式中测试陆地数据同化方案、进行厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)事件的后预报、调查ENSO的事件间多样性、进行印度季风的动力预报试验，以及确定干旱概率对地表边界条件的依赖，包括土地覆盖的变化。项目2下的工作重点是使用信息论分析得出的最优空间结构，这些空间结构代表了最可预测的模式，或两个模型之间可预测性差异最大的模式。这项活动旨在支持美国国家中心的气候预测工作，并为可口可乐从研究到运营的努力做出贡献。项目3下的工作涉及美国国家海洋和大气局国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的合作者，其中包括开发高分辨率耦合模式的最佳初始化方法，其中包括NCEP实际使用的耦合预报系统(CFSv2)版本2。鉴于气候多变性和气候变化的重大社会后果，这项工作具有更广泛的影响，因为其重点是促进改进气候预测的研究。此外，可口可乐通过社区整合、教育、研讨会、研讨会以及软件和信息服务使美国气候研究企业受益。可口可乐还在将关于可预测性和预报的基础气候科学研究成果转化为业务用途方面发挥重要作用。

This award provides continued funding for the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA). COLA is a climate science research center established to explore, establish and quantify the variability and predictability of Earth's climate variations on seasonal to decadal time scales, and to harvest this predictability for societally beneficial predictions. The Center is jointly funded by NSF, NOAA and NASA.Work supported through this award includes activities devoted to 1) basic research on predictability on intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales; 2) evaluation of the predictability, skill, and fidelity of US national climate models; and 3) contributions to the development of next generation seamless prediction systems. Research performed under item 1 includes testing of land data assimilation schemes in multiple models, performing hindcasts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events investigate inter-event diversity of ENSO, performing dynamical prediction experiments for the Indian monsoon, and determining the dependence of drought probability on surface boundary conditions including land cover change. Work under item 2 focuses on the use of optimal spatial structures derived from information theoretic analysis, which represent the most predictable modes, or modes for which predictability differs the most between two models. This activity is intended to support climate prediction efforts at US national centers and contribute to COLA's research-to-operations effort. Work under item 3 involves collaborators at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and includes the development of optimal methods of initializing high-resolution coupled models including version 2 of the Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2), a model used operationally at NCEP.The work has broader impacts due to its focus on research leading to improved climate prediction, given the substantial societal consequences of climate variability and change. In addition, COLA benefits the US climate research enterprise through community integration, education, seminars, workshops, and software and information services. COLA also serves an important function in transferring the results of basic climate science research on predictability and prediction into operational use.