Present-day Kinematics and Dynamics of the Eastern Mediterranean

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We are using continuous and survey-mode Global Positioning System (GPS) and other relevant geological and geophysical information to clarify the special and temporal character of active deformation, and the forces driving this deformation, in the E. Mediterranean/Caucasus/Middle East region where the African, Arabian, and Eurasian plates interact. We place special emphasis on understanding the relationship between active deformation and geologic structures, and interactions between mantle dynamics and crustal tectonics. Our previous studies now provide an accurate (≤1mm/yr) description of regional deformation that is helping to define the basic principles that control continental deformation in this zone of plate interaction. These regional deformation patterns provide the framework for the more detailed studies we are now pursuing, including, (1) characterizing deformation (strain accumulation) along the main faults that control the large majority of deformation in this region (i.e., plate and block boundaries), (2) constraining better deformation in the S.E. Aegean (Greece and Turkey) that is closely related to active subduction and associated earthquake and tsunami hazards along the Hellenic trench, (3) quantifying deformation around unstable, continental triple junctions, including the Karliova and Karaman-Maras triple junctions in E Turkey, 4) determining the spatial character of strain accumulation as a function of the time in the earthquake cycle along the North Anatolian Fault, 5) monitoring and modeling postseismic deformation associated with the 1999, Izmit/Duzce earthquake sequence, and 6) working with collaborating partners to develop and apply realistic, dynamic models for active deformation of the continental lithosphere. This project involves quantifying fault behavior (rates of strain accumulation and fault locking depths), and as such provides a physical basis for earthquake forecasting (estimates of earthquake repeat times, locations, and magnitudes) and hazard mitigation. We work closely with, and provide technology transfer (GPS, deformation modeling) to, academic and government scientific research institutions in Turkey, Greece, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, and Ukraine, including many international students who participate in all aspects of the research. The geodetic infrastructure we are developing in this region is being used to constrain GPS satellite orbits, thereby contributing to other GPS research studies (geodynamics, atmospheric water vapor, LIDAR, ionospheric studies).This work is co-funded by the Geophysics and Tectonics Programs and the Office of International Science and Engineering.