The Seasonal Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Mechanisms and Robustness across Models

ppi建议在一致的框架内使用参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次和第五次评估报告的4个最先进的耦合气候模型来研究与北极海冰损失的季节性大气响应相关的几个突出问题，包括：模式对北极海冰损失相同处方的敏感性；夏末/初秋与冬季海冰退缩的相对作用；对流层-平流层耦合和地面积雪的中介影响。通过在所有4种模式中使用相同的实验设计，他们预计能够评估季节性大气和地表气候响应的稳健性，并确定潜在的物理过程。对未来气候变化情景的政策和管理反应将由包括模式在内的许多来源提供信息。众所周知，模型输出的某些方面在模型之间是健壮的，而其他方面则不那么健壮。参与这项研究的大学、政府和国际科学家之间的伙伴关系将评估关于各种极地过程的模型的稳健性和不确定性。

The PIs propose to use 4 state-of-the-art coupled climate models participating in theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th and 5th Assessment Reports in a consistent framework to investigate several outstanding issues related to the seasonal atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss including: model sensitivity to identical prescriptions of Arctic sea ice loss; the relative roles of late summer/early autumn vs. winter sea ice retreat; and the mediating influences of troposphere-stratosphere coupling and terrestrial snow cover. By using the same experimental design in all 4 models, they anticipate being able to assess the robustness of the seasonal atmospheric and surface climate response as well as identify the underlying physical processes.Policy and management responses to scenarios of future climate change will be informed by many sources, including models. It is known that some aspects of model output are robust between models and others are less so. The partnership between university, government, and international scientists contributing to this study will assess the robustness and uncertainty of models with respect to various polar processes.