Climate Response to Future Changes in Arctic Snow Cover and Sea Ice: A New Perspective from the High-Resolution NCAR CCSM3

气候对北极积雪和海冰未来变化的响应：高分辨率 NCAR CCSM3 的新视角

• 批准号: 0629300
• 负责人: Clara Deser
• 金额: $ 47.79万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-08-15 至 2010-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0629300&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Climate; Response; Future; Changes; Arctic

PROJECT ABSTRACTTitle: Climate Response to Future Changes in Arctic Snow Cover and Sea Ice:A New Perspective from the High-Resolution NCAR CCSM3 Intellectual Merit: The PI's propose to investigate the impact of projected future changes in Arctic sea ice (extent, concentration and thickness) and snow cover (extent and depth) upon the global atmospheric circulation, the oceans, and surface climate using the new high-resolution (T85) version of the NCAR Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). Their first step will be to investigate the linkages among the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and snow cover in the 500 year control integration of CCSM3 under present-day greenhouse gas concentrations and in the multi-member ensemble of historical 20th century integrations of CCSM3. These linkages will then be compared to those occurring in the multi-member ensemble of 21st century IPCC integrations of CCSM3 under various greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (e.g., SRES A1B). To isolate the global atmospheric circulation response to projected future changes in Arctic sea ice and snow cover, the PI's shall prescribe (individually and in combination) the changes in Arctic snow extent and thickness, and sea ice concentration and thickness, during 2080-2100 (obtained from the CCSM3 21st century IPCC integrations) relative to the late 20th century as lower boundary conditions to the Community Atmospheric Model Version 3 (CAM3), the atmospheric model component of CCSM3. They will also investigate the coupled ocean-atmosphere response to the sea ice and snow cover changes by means of experiments with CAM3 coupled to the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the oceanic model component of CCSM3. The proposed work will further understanding of the interactions among Arctic sea ice and snow cover, the global atmospheric circulation, and the oceans under present and future climates.Broader impacts: The proposed research will benefit society by furthering understanding of how current and projected future declines in Arctic sea ice and snow cover will impact the global atmospheric circulation, with attendant impacts on surface climate, and the oceans. The PI's will engage in synergistic collaboration with other ARCSS and NSF supported researchers. The proposal will support a postdoctoral scientist, and the results will be disseminated broadly by means of web sites, peer reviewed journal articles, and presentations at scientific meetings. The model output generated from this proposal will be delivered to the ARCSS Data Coordination Center (ADCC) at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) before the end of the project and will also be made available to the scientific community via the NCAR CCSM Climate Variability Working Group web page. The proposed research will broaden the participation of under-represented groups as defined by the National Science Board by involving women scientists.

项目摘要标题：气候对北极积雪和海冰未来变化的响应：来自高分辨率NCAR CCSM 3的新视角PI建议调查北极海冰预计未来变化的影响（范围、浓度和厚度）和积雪（范围和深度）对全球大气环流、海洋、和地面气候使用新的高分辨率（T85）版本的NCAR社区气候系统模式版本3（CCSM 3）。他们的第一步将是调查大气，海洋，海冰和积雪之间的联系，在500年的控制集成的CCSM 3下，当今的温室气体浓度和多成员合奏的历史世纪集成的CCSM 3。然后将这些联系与21世纪世纪IPCC整合CCSM 3的多成员集合在各种温室气体浓度情景下发生的联系进行比较（例如，SRES A1B）。为了将全球大气环流响应与预计的北极海冰和积雪未来变化隔离开来，PI应规定北极积雪范围和厚度以及海冰密集度和厚度的变化，2080-2100年期间（从CCSM 3 21世纪IPCC积分中获得）相对于20世纪后期作为社区大气模型版本3（CAM 3）的下边界条件，CCSM 3的大气模式组件。 他们还将通过CAM 3与CCSM 3的海洋模式组成部分并行海洋计划（POP）的实验，研究海洋-大气对海冰和积雪变化的耦合响应。更广泛的影响：拟议的研究将通过进一步了解北极海冰和积雪覆盖的当前和预测未来的下降将如何影响全球大气环流，以及随之而来的对地表气候和海洋的影响，从而使社会受益。 PI将与其他ARCSS和NSF支持的研究人员进行协同合作。该提案将支持一名博士后科学家，研究结果将通过网站、同行评审的期刊文章和在科学会议上的演讲等方式广泛传播。该提案产生的模型输出将在项目结束前交付给国家冰雪数据中心（NSIDC）的ARCSS数据协调中心（ADCC），并通过NCAR CCSM气候变率工作组网页提供给科学界。拟议的研究将通过让女科学家参与，扩大国家科学委员会界定的代表性不足群体的参与。