Climate Response to Future Changes in Arctic Snow Cover and Sea Ice: A New Perspective from the High-Resolution NCAR CCSM3

项目摘要标题：气候对北极积雪和海冰未来变化的反应：从高分辨率NCAR CCSM3的一个新视角来看：国际气候研究所提议使用新的高分辨率(T85)版本的NCAR共同体气候系统模式版本3(CCSM3)调查北极海冰(范围、密度和厚度)和积雪(范围和深度)预计未来变化对全球大气环流、海洋和表层气候的影响。他们的第一步将是调查在当今温室气体浓度下CCSM3的500年控制积分中的大气、海洋、海冰和积雪之间的联系，以及在CCSM3的20世纪历史积分的多成员集合中的联系。然后，将把这些联系与21世纪气专委在各种温室气体集中情景(例如SRES A1B)下整合CCSM3的多成员组合中出现的联系进行比较。为了隔离全球大气环流对北极海冰和雪盖未来预计变化的响应，国际大气环流指数应(单独和联合)规定2080-2100年期间北极积雪范围和厚度以及海冰浓度和厚度相对于20世纪末的变化(从CCSM3 21世纪IPCC积分获得)，作为CCSM3的大气模式组成部分--共同体大气模式版本3(CAM3)的较低边界条件。他们还将通过与CCSM3的海洋模式组件并行海洋计划(POP)耦合的CAM3实验来研究海洋-大气对海冰和雪覆盖变化的耦合响应。这项拟议的工作将进一步了解北极海冰雪覆盖、全球大气环流和海洋在当前和未来气候下的相互作用。广泛影响：拟议的研究将进一步了解北极海冰雪覆盖目前和预计未来的下降将如何影响全球大气循环，以及随之而来的对地表气候和海洋的影响，从而使社会受益。国际和平研究所将与其他ARCS和NSF支持的研究人员进行协同合作。该提案将支持一名博士后科学家，其结果将通过网站、同行评议的期刊文章和在科学会议上发表的报告的方式广泛传播。该提案产生的模型输出将在项目结束前交付给国家冰雪数据中心(NSIDC)的ARCS数据协调中心(ADCC)，也将通过NCAR CCSM气候变化工作组的网页向科学界提供。拟议的研究将通过让女科学家参与，扩大国家科学委员会所界定的代表性不足群体的参与。

PROJECT ABSTRACTTitle: Climate Response to Future Changes in Arctic Snow Cover and Sea Ice:A New Perspective from the High-Resolution NCAR CCSM3 Intellectual Merit: The PI's propose to investigate the impact of projected future changes in Arctic sea ice (extent, concentration and thickness) and snow cover (extent and depth) upon the global atmospheric circulation, the oceans, and surface climate using the new high-resolution (T85) version of the NCAR Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). Their first step will be to investigate the linkages among the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and snow cover in the 500 year control integration of CCSM3 under present-day greenhouse gas concentrations and in the multi-member ensemble of historical 20th century integrations of CCSM3. These linkages will then be compared to those occurring in the multi-member ensemble of 21st century IPCC integrations of CCSM3 under various greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (e.g., SRES A1B). To isolate the global atmospheric circulation response to projected future changes in Arctic sea ice and snow cover, the PI's shall prescribe (individually and in combination) the changes in Arctic snow extent and thickness, and sea ice concentration and thickness, during 2080-2100 (obtained from the CCSM3 21st century IPCC integrations) relative to the late 20th century as lower boundary conditions to the Community Atmospheric Model Version 3 (CAM3), the atmospheric model component of CCSM3. They will also investigate the coupled ocean-atmosphere response to the sea ice and snow cover changes by means of experiments with CAM3 coupled to the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the oceanic model component of CCSM3. The proposed work will further understanding of the interactions among Arctic sea ice and snow cover, the global atmospheric circulation, and the oceans under present and future climates.Broader impacts: The proposed research will benefit society by furthering understanding of how current and projected future declines in Arctic sea ice and snow cover will impact the global atmospheric circulation, with attendant impacts on surface climate, and the oceans. The PI's will engage in synergistic collaboration with other ARCSS and NSF supported researchers. The proposal will support a postdoctoral scientist, and the results will be disseminated broadly by means of web sites, peer reviewed journal articles, and presentations at scientific meetings. The model output generated from this proposal will be delivered to the ARCSS Data Coordination Center (ADCC) at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) before the end of the project and will also be made available to the scientific community via the NCAR CCSM Climate Variability Working Group web page. The proposed research will broaden the participation of under-represented groups as defined by the National Science Board by involving women scientists.