Elite Communications and Racial Group Conflict in the 21st Century

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In the past few decades, the racial and ethnic composition of the United States has undergone dramatic changes. During this period Latinos have eclipsed African Americans as the single largest ethnic minority group in the country and they have increasingly settled in large numbers outside of traditional gateway cities in the west and northeast. The percentage of African Americans in the country has not increased nearly as fast but it continues to grow as a share of the overall population and as a share of registered voters. In light of the changing racial and ethnic landscape, this study will address the prospects for inter-group conflict or cooperation in the new century. The investigators are particularly interested in the ways that co-ethnic political elites and interest group leaders can shape the attitudes that African Americans, Latinos, and Whites have about one another. The study will address whether statements by group leaders that are reported in the mass media can inflame or diminish inter-group hostility. For example, are Whites more likely to bring their racial identity to bear on their policy preferences if political leaders provide them with a license to do so? Are similar appeals also effective for African Americans and Latinos? Additionally, the study will explore whether appeals of this sort are more effective when delivered with indirect or coded language, rather than more explicit appeals and whether political appeals designed to cleave the electorate along racial lines are more effective in the American south. Two distinct experiments will be embedded in a nationally representative Internet survey to test hypotheses about group conflict. The study will test, and potentially modify, a number of theories concerning racial attitudes and identity politics in the fields of political science, sociology, social psychology, and communication studies. This work will explore the contingent nature of racial and ethnic identities and seek to identify the circumstances in which they can be brought to bear on policy preferences and other political decisions. This research also has implications beyond advancing the social science literature. With the inauguration of Barack Obama as the nation's 44th President, many political observers predicted that the country would enter a new, "post-racial," era. However, it may be the case that Obama's victory, coupled with the demographic changes outlined above, will make race and ethnicity more salient in the future. It is also possible that some political figures will have an incentive to capitalize on lingering racial fears and resentments. If scholars can generate an improved understanding of the possibilities and limitations of these appeals, then society will be better equipped to combat divisive racial rhetoric.