Elite Communications and Racial Group Conflict in the 21st Century

在过去的几十年里，美国的种族和民族构成发生了戏剧性的变化。在此期间，拉美裔美国人已超过非洲裔美国人，成为该国最大的单一少数民族群体，他们越来越多地在西部和东北部传统门户城市以外的地方定居。非裔美国人在美国的比例几乎没有增加得那么快，但它在总人口和登记选民中所占的比例继续增长。鉴于不断变化的种族和民族状况，这项研究将探讨新世纪群体间冲突或合作的前景。调查人员特别感兴趣的是，同种族的政治精英和利益集团领导人如何塑造非裔美国人、拉丁裔和白人对彼此的态度。这项研究将探讨大众媒体报道的团体领导人的声明是否会加剧或减少团体间的敌意。例如，如果政治领导人向白人提供许可证，他们是否更有可能将自己的种族认同与他们的政策偏好联系在一起？类似的呼吁对非洲裔美国人和拉美裔美国人也有效吗？此外，这项研究还将探索，这种呼吁在使用间接或暗示性语言时是否比更明确的呼吁更有效，以及旨在按照种族界限分裂选民的政治呼吁在美国南部是否更有效。两个截然不同的实验将被嵌入到一项具有全国代表性的互联网调查中，以测试关于群体冲突的假设。这项研究将测试并可能修改政治学、社会学、社会心理学和传播学领域中关于种族态度和身份政治的一些理论。这项工作将探讨种族和族裔特性的偶然性，并设法确定在何种情况下可以利用它们来影响政策偏好和其他政治决定。这项研究还具有推动社会科学文献发展的意义。随着巴拉克·奥巴马就任美国第44任总统，许多政治观察家预测美国将进入一个新的“后种族”时代。然而，情况可能是，奥巴马的胜利，加上上面概述的人口结构变化，将使种族和民族在未来变得更加突出。一些政治人物也有可能会有动机，利用挥之不去的种族恐惧和怨恨。如果学者们能够更好地理解这些上诉的可能性和局限性，那么社会将更好地准备好打击分裂的种族言论。

In the past few decades, the racial and ethnic composition of the United States has undergone dramatic changes. During this period Latinos have eclipsed African Americans as the single largest ethnic minority group in the country and they have increasingly settled in large numbers outside of traditional gateway cities in the west and northeast. The percentage of African Americans in the country has not increased nearly as fast but it continues to grow as a share of the overall population and as a share of registered voters. In light of the changing racial and ethnic landscape, this study will address the prospects for inter-group conflict or cooperation in the new century. The investigators are particularly interested in the ways that co-ethnic political elites and interest group leaders can shape the attitudes that African Americans, Latinos, and Whites have about one another. The study will address whether statements by group leaders that are reported in the mass media can inflame or diminish inter-group hostility. For example, are Whites more likely to bring their racial identity to bear on their policy preferences if political leaders provide them with a license to do so? Are similar appeals also effective for African Americans and Latinos? Additionally, the study will explore whether appeals of this sort are more effective when delivered with indirect or coded language, rather than more explicit appeals and whether political appeals designed to cleave the electorate along racial lines are more effective in the American south. Two distinct experiments will be embedded in a nationally representative Internet survey to test hypotheses about group conflict. The study will test, and potentially modify, a number of theories concerning racial attitudes and identity politics in the fields of political science, sociology, social psychology, and communication studies. This work will explore the contingent nature of racial and ethnic identities and seek to identify the circumstances in which they can be brought to bear on policy preferences and other political decisions. This research also has implications beyond advancing the social science literature. With the inauguration of Barack Obama as the nation's 44th President, many political observers predicted that the country would enter a new, "post-racial," era. However, it may be the case that Obama's victory, coupled with the demographic changes outlined above, will make race and ethnicity more salient in the future. It is also possible that some political figures will have an incentive to capitalize on lingering racial fears and resentments. If scholars can generate an improved understanding of the possibilities and limitations of these appeals, then society will be better equipped to combat divisive racial rhetoric.