Assessing long-term technological progress for alternative transport energy sources

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0933837WilliamsThe objective of this research is to advance modeling of technological progress of alternative energies by developing and applying new methods to (1) estimate long-term bounds on economic and environmental performance, (2) assess life cycle economic and environmental costs, and (3) assess uncertainty in technological forecasting. The methodology will synergistically integrate experience curve, thermodynamic, and life cycle approaches. The concept to combine these approaches is to (1) pick life cycle technological paths implementing a given supply type (e.g., cellulosic-based switchgrass ethanol), (2) apply thermodynamic and physical laws to find upper limits of efficiency, (3) develop lower bound estimates of long-term costs and environmental impacts of technologies, and (4) scope technological components of dynamic evolution of cost and key environmental impacts. Characterizing future technological development involves significant uncertainties and assessment of this uncertainty is a major component of the project. At the high school level, curricula material will be developed and implemented for energy literacy that incorporates both engineering/technical aspects and an understanding of the interconnections between energy systems, human society, and the environment. To advance the understanding and use of technological progress models in decision-making, a workshop will be held near Washington D.C. to engage energy R&D and policy communities. This award is co-funded by the CBET/ENG Environmental Sustainability and Energy for Sustainability programs.