Assessing long-term technological progress for alternative transport energy sources

本研究的目的是通过开发和应用新方法(1)估算经济和环境绩效的长期界限，(2)评估生命周期经济和环境成本，以及(3)评估技术预测中的不确定性，来推进替代能源技术进步的建模。该方法将协同整合经验曲线、热力学和生命周期方法。将这些方法结合起来的概念是：(1)选择实现特定供应类型的生命周期技术路径（例如，基于纤维素的柳枝稷乙醇），(2)应用热力学和物理定律来找到效率的上限，(3)制定长期成本和技术环境影响的下限估计，以及(4)确定成本动态演变和关键环境影响的技术组件。描述未来技术发展的特征涉及重大的不确定性，对这种不确定性的评估是该项目的主要组成部分。在高中阶段，将开发和实施能源知识的课程材料，既包括工程/技术方面，又包括对能源系统、人类社会和环境之间相互联系的理解。为了促进对决策过程中技术进步模型的理解和使用，将在华盛顿特区附近举办一个研讨会，邀请能源研发和政策界人士参与。该奖项由CBET/ENG环境可持续发展和能源可持续发展项目共同资助。

0933837WilliamsThe objective of this research is to advance modeling of technological progress of alternative energies by developing and applying new methods to (1) estimate long-term bounds on economic and environmental performance, (2) assess life cycle economic and environmental costs, and (3) assess uncertainty in technological forecasting. The methodology will synergistically integrate experience curve, thermodynamic, and life cycle approaches. The concept to combine these approaches is to (1) pick life cycle technological paths implementing a given supply type (e.g., cellulosic-based switchgrass ethanol), (2) apply thermodynamic and physical laws to find upper limits of efficiency, (3) develop lower bound estimates of long-term costs and environmental impacts of technologies, and (4) scope technological components of dynamic evolution of cost and key environmental impacts. Characterizing future technological development involves significant uncertainties and assessment of this uncertainty is a major component of the project. At the high school level, curricula material will be developed and implemented for energy literacy that incorporates both engineering/technical aspects and an understanding of the interconnections between energy systems, human society, and the environment. To advance the understanding and use of technological progress models in decision-making, a workshop will be held near Washington D.C. to engage energy R&D and policy communities. This award is co-funded by the CBET/ENG Environmental Sustainability and Energy for Sustainability programs.