CAREER: Dynamics and Impacts of Fine-Scale Climate Change

职业：小规模气候变化的动态和影响

• 批准号: 0955283
• 负责人: Noah Diffenbaugh
• 金额: $ 44.38万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-01 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0955283&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Dynamics; Impacts; Fine; Scale

This project will test the hypothesis that fine-scale processes regulate the response of climate to elevated greenhouse forcing at the spatial and temporal scales that matter most for climate change impacts. In order to test this hypothesis, the investigators will establish an approach to climate change uncertainty quantification that uses a suite of impacts metrics as indicators of the magnitude and spatial heterogeneity of physical climate change. This approach will require a combination of existing and new climate model experiments; climate model configuration and testing; observational data analysis; and climate change impacts analysis. This over-arching hypothesis will be tested by systematically testing sub-hypotheses relating fine-scale climate processes to (1) the level of greenhouse forcing, (2) the response of large-scale climate processes, and (3) the internal climate system variability.The investigators will produce a suite of high-resolution climate model experiments and impacts analyses. These experiments and analyses will contribute to a systematic, quantitative evaluation of the importance of fine-scale climate processes relative to other sources of climate change uncertainty, as well as a quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of elevated greenhouse gas concentrations on a suite of impacts indicators. Although this impacts-based approach will have the secondary benefit of generating climate change impacts assessments (including for severe heat, severe precipitation, and snowmelt), the primary benefit will be to better identify, understand and compare key physical processes that govern the response of the climate system to elevated greenhouse forcing.The project will have a number of tangible broader impacts, including the design, development, and assessment of a framework for the Stanford University Learning About Climate Change web-resource. The investigators will also seek to broaden the participation of underrepresented groups through graduate student recruiting efforts. Further, the results of this project are likely to result in tangible benefits to society, particularly given the current need for improved scientific understanding and communication that inform local, state, national, and international climate policy.

本项目将检验以下假设：在对气候变化影响最为重要的空间和时间尺度上，细尺度过程调节气候对温室强迫升高的反应。为了检验这一假设，研究人员将建立一种气候变化不确定性量化的方法，该方法使用一套影响指标作为物理气候变化的幅度和空间异质性的指标。这一方法将需要结合现有和新的气候模型实验;气候模型配置和测试;观测数据分析;以及气候变化影响分析。通过系统地检验细尺度气候过程与（1）温室强迫水平、（2）大尺度气候过程的响应和（3）内部气候系统变率的相关子假设，将对这一过度气候假设进行检验。研究人员将制作一套高分辨率气候模式实验和影响分析。这些实验和分析将有助于对小尺度气候过程相对于其他气候变化不确定性来源的重要性进行系统的定量评估，并有助于对温室气体浓度升高对一系列影响指标的潜在影响进行定量评估。尽管这种基于影响的方法将具有生成气候变化影响评估的次要好处（包括酷热、强降水和融雪），主要好处将是更好地识别、理解和比较控制气候系统对温室强迫升高的响应的关键物理过程。该项目将产生一些切实的更广泛的影响，包括设计、开发、和评估斯坦福大学气候变化学习网络资源框架。调查人员还将寻求通过研究生招聘工作扩大代表性不足群体的参与。此外，该项目的结果可能会给社会带来切实的好处，特别是考虑到目前需要改善科学理解和沟通，为地方，州，国家和国际气候政策提供信息。