Impacts of phenology on disease transmission dynamics

物候对疾病传播动态的影响

• 批准号: 10813397
• 负责人: Dustin Brisson
• 金额: $ 61.62万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-01 至 2028-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10813397
• 关键词: Automobile Driving; Black-legged Tick; Complex; Computer Models; Data; Disease; Event; Explosion; Extinction; Frequencies; Geography; Insect Vectors; Life; Life Cycle Stages; Modeling; North America; Outcome; Parasites; Pattern; Plants; Population; Population Dynamics; Process; Public Health; Research; Seasons; Site; Statistical Models; System; Theoretical model; Tick-Borne Diseases; Ticks; Time; Validation; Variant; Zoonoses; disease transmission; disorder risk; health management; human disease; human pathogen; life history; pathogen; predictive modeling; transmission process

The proposed projects are a comprehensive effort to rigorously investigate the contribution of phenology - or seasonal activity - to pathogen transmission dynamics using 3 widespread zoonotic pathogens carried by black-legged ticks. Variation in seasonal activity patterns and life-history events, which are well documented in species inhabiting temperate regions, can result in dramatic population dynamics including population extinctions or explosions. Phenological variation across time and geography also alters the frequency and strength of inter-species interactions and thus opportunities for pathogen transmission, which likely has profound impacts on pathogen transmission dynamics and human disease risk. Despite the likely importance to public health, the consequences of phenological variation on disease transmission dynamics remain notably under-studied in many complex zoonotic disease systems. The tick-borne disease system in North America provides the ideal system to determine the impact of phenology on pathogen transmission dynamics both theoretically and empirically. We will build and evaluate solvable analytical models, computational models, and advanced statistical models, all of which explicitly incorporate tick seasonal activity, and validate these models with empirical data from natural field sites. The proposed projects will (1) determine the quantitative impact of different phenological scenarios on the transmission dynamics of, and thus disease risk from, 3 human pathogens, (2) empirically evaluate model predictions, and (3) identify specific phenological and environmental features that result in different transmission dynamic outcomes among pathogen species. We will develop 3 modeling frameworks to investigate the impact of phenology on transmission dynamics, identify and quantify phenological and environmental drivers of transmission dynamics in 3 important human pathogens, and empirically validate the outcomes of the theoretical and statistical models. Empirical validation of both the phenological drivers and model predictions is essential not only for public health management but also to identify mechanistic processes driving these patterns. The proposed research provides both theoretical and empirical frameworks to investigate the impact of phenology on transmission dynamics in the multitude of disease systems involving multiple host species or life-stages from insect-vectored plant pathogens to pathogens with multi-host life-cycles.

拟议的项目是一项全面的努力，以严格研究物候的贡献 - 或季节性活动 - 使用3种广泛的人畜共患病原体进行病原体传播动力学 由黑腿tick滴。季节性活动模式和生活历史事件的变化，这很好 记录在居住在温带地区的物种中，可能导致戏剧性的人口动态 人口灭绝或爆炸。跨时间和地理的物质变化也改变了 种间相互作用的频率和强度，从而获得病原体传播的机会， 这可能会对病原体传播动态和人类疾病风险产生深远的影响。尽管 对公共卫生的重要性，物候变异对疾病传播的后果 在许多复杂的人畜共患病系统中，动力学仍然显着研究。 tick传说 北美的疾病系统提供了确定物候对影响的理想系统 病原体传递在理论上和经验上都是动力学。我们将建立和评估可解决的 分析模型，计算模型和高级统计模型，所有这些模型都明确 纳入tick季节活动，并通过自然野外地点的经验数据来验证这些模型。 拟议的项目将（1）确定不同物候场景对 3种人类病原体的传播动态，因此疾病风险，（2）经验评估模型 预测以及（3）确定特定的物候和环境特征，导致不同 病原体中的传播动态结果。我们将开发3个建模框架 研究物候对传播动态的影响，识别和量化物候和 3种重要的人类病原体中传播动力学的环境驱动因素，并在经验上验证 理论和统计模型的结果。对物候驱动器的经验验证 模型预测不仅对于公共卫生管理至关重要，而且要确定机理 驱动这些模式的过程。拟议的研究提供了理论和经验 框架研究物候对多种疾病的传播动态的影响 涉及多种宿主物种或生命阶段的系统，从昆虫载体植物病原体到病原体 与多主持人生命周期。