A Multi-level, Agent-based Model for Identifying the Factors that Enable or Constrain International Climate Change Negotiations

气候变化政策是一个全球性的集体决策问题，其规模和复杂性都是前所未有的。然而，评估国际政策的科学方法往往遵循两条独立的分析路线，这两条路线对真实的世界环境都没有充分的指导意义。一种方法，通常被称为综合评估模型，主要由经济学家和决策理论家采用，重点是评估各种温室气体减排情景的长期成本和效益。第二种方法起源于博弈论，侧重于评估可能导致有效合作气候协定的国际结构和条件。这两种分析都严重依赖于一个简化的假设，即国家经济是由完全理性的中央计划者精心策划的，尽管存在关于减缓成本、气候损害和未来经济状况的普遍不确定性，但这些计划者拥有做出最佳决策的信息和能力。事实上，任何国际气候协议的结果和实施都将是多个层面利益相关者复杂相互作用的最终结果，这些利益相关者做出最佳决策的能力有限，并且具有不同的信念，权力和激励结构。因此，现有的评估工具很可能忽略了一些影响气候政策形成的重要因素。本项目将开发一种新的国际气候政策分析工具，该工具基于基于代理建模（ABM），有助于更现实地同时处理影响多方决策的各种力量。该模型将代表国际气候谈判进程以及与能源和气候变化相关的国内经济的关键动态。我们的模型要探讨的一些关键问题包括：是否有创新，适应，或气候损害的模式，从ABM代表的经济，是由传统的评估模糊出现？ 解释了国家一级信念和动机的异质性以及国际一级力量和脆弱性的异质性的反弹道导弹，是否能够解释历史上观察到的谈判结果？有效的国际谈判结构的设计是否取决于国家经济之间或国家经济内部的异质性程度？ 这项研究将帮助利益相关者-包括公民，利益集团，企业，政府和国际组织-更好地了解全球连接的决策者网络中的机会。

Climate change policy represents a global, collective decision-making problem unprecedented in scale and complexity. Scientific methods for evaluating international policy, however, have tended to follow two separate lines of analysis, neither of which is fully instructive for real world settings. One approach, typically referred to as Integrated Assessment Modeling, is largely pursued by economists and decision theorists and focuses on assessment of the long-term costs and benefits of various greenhouse gas reduction scenarios. A second approach originates with game theorists and focuses on evaluating international structures and conditions likely to lead to effective cooperative climate agreements. Both types of analysis rely heavily on the simplifying assumption that national economies are orchestrated by perfectly rational central planners who have the information and ability to make optimal decisions despite the presence of pervasive uncertainty about mitigation costs, climate damages, and future states of the economy. In reality, the outcome and implementation of any international climate agreement will be the net result of a complex interplay of stakeholders at multiple levels who have limited ability to make optimal decisions and have differing beliefs, power, and incentive structures. Therefore, it is likely that the existing assessment tools overlook some important factors that may enable or constrain effective climate policy formation.This project will develop of new tool for international climate policy analysis based on agent-based modeling (ABM) that facilitates a more realistic and simultaneous treatment of the diverse forces which influence multi-party decisions. The model will represent both the international climate negotiation process, as well as the key dynamics of domestic economies relevant to energy and climate change. Some key questions to be explored with our model include: Are there patterns of innovation, adaptation, or climate damages that emerge from an ABM representation of an economy that are obscured by conventional assessments? Does an ABM that accounts for heterogeneity of beliefs and incentives at the national level and heterogeneity of power and vulnerability at the international level explain the negotiation outcomes historically observed? Does the design of effective international negotiation structures depend on the degree of heterogeneity occurring either between or within national economies? This research will help inform stakeholders -- including citizens, interest groups, businesses, governments, and international organizations -- so that they better understand the opportunities in a globally connected network of decision makers.