New Measures of Preferences: Risk, Time, Beliefs, and Social Image

新的偏好衡量标准：风险、时间、信仰和社会形象

• 批准号: 0962484
• 负责人: James Andreoni
• 金额: $ 44.44万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-03-15 至 2015-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0962484&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: New; Measures; Preferences; Risk; Time

This project explores four areas of individual decision making: choices over risk, choices over time, reporting beliefs about probability distributions, and concern for one 's social-image. The four sections are tied together by constructing new ways to measure and estimate preferences. With risk, we ask subjects to construct a most preferred gamble by trading away some probability of winning for an increase in the prize. For choices over time, we vary the returns, time delays, and likelihood of getting paid and ask individuals to diversify across receiving payment "earlier" or "later." For eliciting beliefs, we employ a new scoring rule that is simple and transparent and tends to result in more updating behavior. Finally, with social image we intend to show that when a person's choices may have some moral consequences, an essential feature of the deliberations is the image created in the minds of others. All of these issues are addressed with new and simple techniques that tend to produce data that is more in line with neoclassical models of choice than many other techniques employed by economists and decision scientists in the past.In summary, the projects presents a new methodology for measuring the foundations of economics analysis: preferences and beliefs. In the process we gain a deeper understanding of how the mind approaches complex individual and social decisions. This research will provide economists and decision theorists with new instruments that will improve the reliability and accuracy of their work. Policy makers will have new information to use in evaluating programs that affect time and risk. Institution and mechanism designers will have a deeper understanding of how to incorporate and use social motives to improve performance and efficiency.

该项目探讨了个人决策的四个领域：对风险的选择、随时间的选择、报告对概率分布的信念以及对个人社会形象的关注。通过构建衡量和估计偏好的新方法，将这四个部分联系在一起。考虑到风险，我们要求受试者通过牺牲一些获胜的概率来换取奖金的增加来构建最喜欢的赌博。对于随着时间的推移的选择，我们会改变回报、时间延迟和获得付款的可能性，并要求个人在“提前”或“稍后”接收付款方面进行多样化。为了引发信念，我们采用了一种新的评分规则，该规则简单且透明，并且往往会导致更多的更新行为。最后，通过社会形象，我们打算表明，当一个人的选择可能产生一些道德后果时，审议的一个基本特征是在他人心目中创造的形象。所有这些问题都可以通过新的、简单的技术来解决，这些技术往往会产生比经济学家和决策科学家过去使用的许多其他技术更符合新古典选择模型的数据。 总之，这些项目提出了一种衡量经济学分析基础的新方法：偏好和信念。在这个过程中，我们对大脑如何处理复杂的个人和社会决策有了更深入的了解。这项研究将为经济学家和决策理论家提供新的工具，提高他们工作的可靠性和准确性。政策制定者将有新的信息可用于评估影响时间和风险的计划。制度和机制设计者将对如何融入和利用社会动机来提高绩效和效率有更深入的了解。