Resilience in Rail-Based Intermodal Transportation Systems: Performance Measurement and Decision Support

近年来，货运和客运系统的事故、天气引发的灾害和恐怖袭击风险急剧增加。此类事件的发生会对系统性能产生巨大影响，特别是对联运（IM）系统，并且会导致重大的经济损失。一个安全和正常运作的交通系统对社会至关重要。为了确保在灾害发生后能够提供有效的运输服务，使社会能够恢复，负责建设、管理和运营这些系统的机构必须投资于预防或减轻灾害事件影响的措施。这项研究工作认识到，交通运输网络的灾后绩效不仅取决于系统吸收外部引起的变化的固有能力，而且还取决于在灾难发生后立即采取的行动，以保持或恢复系统的性能。确定适当的灾前准备和灾后恢复行动以及相关的投资分配决定，可在减少随之而来的灾后经济和社会损失方面发挥关键作用。这项工作将提供一套全面的工具，明确考虑灾后恢复活动的机会，以支持基于铁路的IM系统性能测量、运营决策、备灾规划和灾后立即行动。这些工具的开发需要对复杂的动态和随机系统进行数学建模，并创建精确的算法和更快的算法来解决大规模的现实问题。开发的工具将帮助这些关键生命线的管理人员有效应对灾害威胁。虽然这项工作的结果将具有广泛的适用性，但其重点是基于铁路的IM客运和货运系统及其组件（例如客运站，IM终端，港口）。通过这一努力开发的绩效衡量、备灾规划和运营决策工具将为铁路IM客运和货运系统的基础设施管理人员和IM系统运营商提供支持，促进旨在预防或减轻灾害影响的最佳投资决策。这些工具的应用将有助于确保IM传输网络的安全，并满足社会对稳定系统的需求。现有的相互竞争的措施，如不考虑恢复行动的可靠性和灵活性，可能会低估网络科普突发事件的能力，并可能导致不必要的或错误的投资。与汽车运输相比，铁路系统的负面社会环境外部成本相对较低，而汽车运输是造成日益严重的道路拥堵、污染和世界能源枯竭的一种模式。因此，需要这些系统来减轻我们的工业巨头的影响，而工业巨头对高效货物运输的需求正是从工业巨头那里产生的。这项研究工作的重点是提高这些系统抵御灾难和从灾难中恢复的能力，从而提高这种急需的绿色交通替代品的竞争力。

Risks from accidents, weather-induced hazards, and terrorist attacks on freight and passenger transport systems have dramatically increased in recent years. The occurrence of such events can have tremendous impact on system performance, especially intermodal (IM) systems, and can lead to significant economic loss. A secure and functioning transportation system is of paramount importance to society. To ensure that effective transport services can be provided in a disaster's aftermath, enabling society to recover, agencies charged with constructing, managing and operating these systems must invest in measures that prevent or mitigate the effects of disaster incidents. This research effort recognizes that the post-disaster performance of transportation networks depends not only on the inherent capability of the system to absorb externally induced changes, but also on the actions that can be taken in the immediate aftermath of the disaster to preserve or restore system performance. Identification of the appropriate pre-event preparatory and post-disaster recovery actions and related investment allocation decisions can play a crucial role in lessening ensuing post-disaster economic and societal loss. This effort will provide a comprehensive set of tools, that explicitly consider opportunities for post-disaster recovery activity, to support rail-based IM system performance measurement, operational decision-making, preparedness planning and immediate post-disaster action. The development of such tools requires the mathematical modeling of complex dynamic and stochastic systems and creation of exact algorithms and faster heuristics for solution of large-scale real-world problems. Developed tools will aid the managers of these critical lifelines to effectively address threats from disasters. While results of this effort will have wide applicability, its focus is on rail-based IM passenger and freight transport systems and their components (e.g. passenger depots, IM terminals, ports). The performance measurement, preparedness planning and operational decision-making tools developed through this effort will provide support to infrastructure managers and IM system operators of rail-based IM passenger and freight transport systems, facilitating optimal investment decisions aimed at preventing or ameliorating the effects of disasters. Application of these tools will aid in securing the IM transport networks and address society's need for a stable system. Competing existing measures, such as reliability and flexibility that do not consider recovery actions, may underestimate the networks ability to cope with unexpected events and may lead to unnecessary or misdirected investment. Rail-based systems have comparatively low negative socio-environmental external costs as compared with vehicular transport, a mode that contributes to ever-increasing roadway congestion, pollution, and the depletion of our worlds energy resources. Thus, these systems are needed to mitigate the impact of our industrial juggernaut from which demand for efficient goods transport is derived. This research effort focuses on improving the ability of such systems to resist and recover from disaster, thereby improving the competitiveness of this much needed greener transport alternative.