Doctoral Dissertation Research: Soy, Cattle, and the Amazon Forest

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Over the past two decades, an agricultural revolution has occurred in the Brazilian Amazon. Regions within the Amazon have quickly emerged as significant producers of grains and oilseeds, and they now provide consumers across the world with vegetable oils and animal feeds vital to distant economies. Despite the fact that beef production remains the primary driver of Amazonian deforestation, questions have emerged about the potential environmental impact associated with the expansion of large-scale agriculture in the region. This doctoral dissertation research project will address this issue and considers the impact of soybean production on regional forest cover. The doctoral student will focus the project on two principal questions: (1) By what mechanism does intensification at the intensive margin (with soybean production) influence the expansion of less intensive production strategies, such as ranching? (2) To what extent is pasture-led forest loss linked to encroachment by more intensive agricultural production on existing pastures? By answering these questions, the student will seek to ascertain how much Amazonian deforestation is caused by soybean farming, both from direct encroachments into forest and by virtue of compensatory pasture expansion following displacement by soybeans. He will employ a conceptual framework based on an adaptation of Thunian rent theory and considers the cascading spatial effects that emerge as land uses expand on one another, specifically the "pushing" of soybean farming against existing pastures. He will use a spatial-temporal regression model to test the relationship between regional expansion of soybean production and increases in cattle populations at distant locations. His statistical work will be complemented by interviews with producers' organizations in order to ascertain the destination of displaced ranchers, to understand production shifts associated with changes in ownership, and to gain greater behavioral insight into land-use dynamics. The project intends to fully comprehend the linkage between the expansion of soybean production and forest loss attributable to clearings for new pastures.This project will provide a better understand of the factors affecting Amazonian forest loss. It will consider the role of soybeans as an underlying factor of pasture-led deforestation, and it will provide new information and insights regarding the mechanisms through which this occurs. In so doing, the project will bring to light linkages between soybean and cattle that have until now gone largely unseen, hidden by the regional land-use system. Project results will be useful for policy makers, managers, and members of the public who are attempting to strike a balance between regional economic demands and the preservation of the forest cover. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career. This project will be supported based on the joint recommendation of the NSF Geography and Spatial Sciences Program and the Americas Program in the NSF Office of International Science and Engineering.