Perception of Climate Change

未来十年，科学界面临的巨大挑战之一是就全球气候变化的影响，包括所涉及的重大不确定性，向社会提供有用的指导。此外，传播信息的方法有能力塑造公众的态度和反应。该项目旨在阐明气候传播的具体方法、认知过程、态度和决策之间的关系。该项目侧重于减缓气候变化选择中的四个关键因素：1)对气候预测的信任；2)对气候变化的关注；3)对减缓气候变化努力的自我效能感（是否觉得自己能够产生影响）；4)对气候变化基础机制的因果理解。一系列实验将使用各种各样的方法，测试传播策略对这些因素的影响，以及它们是否与参与者特征（如党派、年龄和性别）相互作用。有效的气候变化沟通是社会面临的重大挑战。它需要将复杂的科学信息，包括不确定性信息，转化为可理解且相关的预测，供公共和私人决策的广泛用户使用。该项目为气候变化和其他领域的通信设计提供了参考。实验程序测试包括不确定性估计在内的气候预测是否能增强用户信任、对科学共识的感知、决策质量以及对其中一些影响的即时反馈的作用。实验还测试了可用性（最近与全球变暖一致的天气经验）在风险感知和决策中的作用。本文探讨了四种关键的沟通策略。本研究将检验1)在气候预测中纳入不确定性估计是否会增加信任或影响科学共识的感知；2)降低抽象水平是否会影响心理表征、关注、自我效能或决策；3)与气候变化一致的极端天气事件（如热浪）的描述是否会增加关注或气候友好选择；4)因果解释是否会增强对气候预测或自我效能的信任。此外，本项目首次对经验可得性和描述可得性的影响进行了实验比较。如果后者是有效的，它可能有助于抵消与全球变暖不一致的经验的心理后果。该项目还提供了因果解释对气候预测信任和气候缓解工作自我效能影响的第一个实验测试。这个项目测试心理表征中的抽象是否可以通过使用重复测量设计的简单沟通技术来改变，观察到的变化是否会随着时间的推移而持续，以及它们是否会影响对气候变化、自我效能和决策的关注。通过调查这些一般机制，该项目增加了对人们在风险环境中理解、评估和选择如何根据预测性沟通采取行动的方式的科学理解，促进了风险沟通和决策科学的发展。有效的气候变化沟通是一项关键挑战，需要将复杂的科学信息（包括不确定性信息）转化为可理解且相关的预测，供公共和私人决策的广泛用户使用。这项工作的结果将为气候通信的设计以及广泛领域的预测和预报提供信息。

One of the great challenges for the scientific community over the next decade is to provide useful guidance to society regarding the implications of global climate change, including the substantial uncertainties involved. Moreover, the methods by which that information is communicated have the power to shape public attitudes and response. This project is designed to clarify the relationships between specific methods of climate communication, cognitive processes, attitudes and decisions. The project focuses on four key factors in climate mitigation choices 1) trust in climate projections, 2) concern about climate change 3) self-efficacy with respect to climate change mitigation efforts (whether one feels that one can have an impact) and 4) causal understanding of the mechanisms that underlie climate change. A series of experiments, using a wide range of methodologies, will test the influence of communications strategies on each of these factors as well as whether they interact with participant characteristics such as partisanship, age and gender. Effective climate change communication is a critical challenge for society. It requires transforming complex scientific information, including uncertainty information, into understandable yet relevant projections for a wide range of users in both public and private decisions. This project informs the design of such communications in the context of climate change as well as in other domains.Experimental procedures test whether climate projections that include uncertainty estimates enhance user trust, the perception of scientific consensus, decision quality and the role of immediate feedback on some of these effects. Experiments also test the role of availability (recent experience with weather consistent with global warming) on risk perception and decisions. Four key communication strategies are explored. This research will test whether 1) the inclusion of uncertainty estimates in climate projections increases trust or impacts the perception of scientific consensus, 2) reducing the level of abstraction impacts mental representations, concern, self-efficacy, or decisions 3) descriptions of extreme weather events consistent with climate change (e.g. heat waves) increase concern or climate friendly choices, 4) causal explanations enhance trust in climate projections or self-efficacy.Furthermore, this project conducts the first experimental comparison of the impact of availability from experience and availability from description. If the latter is effective it may be useful in counteracting the psychological consequences of experience inconsistent with global warming. This project also provides a first experimental test of the impact of causal explanations on trust in climate projections and on self-efficacy with respect to climate mitigation efforts. This project tests whether abstraction in mental representations can be altered with simple communication techniques using a repeated measures design, whether observed changes endure over time, and whether they influence concern about climate change, self-efficacy, and decision-making. By investigating these general mechanisms, the project adds to the scientific understanding of the ways in which people comprehend, evaluate and choose how to act upon predictive communications in risky contexts, advancing both risk communication and decision sciences. Effective climate change communication is a critical challenge requiring transforming complex scientific information, including uncertainty information, into understandable yet relevant projections for a wide range of users in both public and private decisions. The results of this work will inform the design of climate communications as well as predictions and forecasts in a wide range of domains.