Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Treaty Compliance, Enforcement and Monitoring: A Preference-Based Approach

政治学博士论文研究：条约遵守、执行和监督：基于偏好的方法

• 批准号: 1064108
• 负责人: David Lake
• 金额: $ 1.2万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-15 至 2012-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1064108&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

Multilateral treaties represent some of the most ambitious, comprehensive, and yet controversial efforts at global cooperation. This project addresses two overarching questions about these treaties: (1) Which treaty designs are "stronger" in terms of their ability to bring signatories into compliance? (2) How do different types of regimes react to different treaty enforcement and monitoring mechanisms? The project will conduct an in-depth quantitative analysis of the relationship between countries' decisions to sign treaties, the designs of those treaties, and countries' rates of compliance. One problem in doing such research is that it is difficult to infer from rates of observed compliance that a treaty is working effectively. Social scientists have long recognized this problem, but have not been able to find an effective solution to it. This project's solution to the long-standing problem is based on the notion that treaties work to the extent they cause countries to do something they would not otherwise do. Accordingly, to understand whether or not treaties work, the first task is to estimate the probability with which countries would have complied with treaties in any event. The investigator uses a novel methodology he has developed to overcome this problem. The intuition behind the method is that, by observing and comparing the past behaviors of many countries with respect to treaties, it is possible to discover which treaties are closer to each country's preferred set of actions. Using this method, the investigator will have results that indicate not only which treaties are effective at modifying countries' behaviors, but also the extent to which they do so, which will allow for valuable treaty-by-treaty comparisons. This study will include some of the most prominent global treaties dealing with trade, finance, human rights, environmental and arms control issues.This project's methodological innovation in itself improves understanding of which treaties work well and which do not. Beyond that, the project permits assessment of which types of treaty enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have relatively great effects on state behavior. For example, the study will indicate whether treaties that rely on domestic courts for enforcement are more effective than those that rely on international courts. In addition, the project takes account of the important interaction between institutional treaty mechanisms and country characteristics. It allows appraisal, for example, of which types of treaties are most effective with respect to democracies and which are more likely to change the behaviors of non-democracies.The project will thus make several broader contributions. It will enhance understanding of treaty institutions, which in turn could significantly benefit the prospects of global cooperation. This project is designed to indicate, both theoretically and empirically, which types of treaty enforcement and monitoring mechanisms lead to greater degrees of treaty compliance. Its results could therefore guide future treaty negotiations and suggest which treaty mechanisms are more likely to be effective than others and in which contexts.

多边条约代表了全球合作中一些最雄心勃勃、最全面、但又有争议的努力。 本项目处理关于这些条约的两个首要问题：（1）就促使签署国遵守的能力而言，哪些条约的设计“更强”？(2)不同类型的制度如何应对不同的条约执行和监测机制？该项目将对各国签署条约的决定、这些条约的设计和各国遵守率之间的关系进行深入的定量分析。 进行这种研究的一个问题是，很难从观察到的遵守率推断出条约正在有效运作。 社会科学家早就认识到这一问题，但一直未能找到有效的解决方案。本项目对这一长期存在的问题的解决方案是基于这样一种概念，即条约的作用在于促使各国做一些本来不会做的事情。 因此，要了解条约是否有效，第一项任务是估计各国在任何情况下遵守条约的概率。 研究人员使用他开发的一种新方法来克服这个问题。 这种方法的直觉是，通过观察和比较许多国家过去对条约的行为，可以发现哪些条约更接近每个国家的首选行动。 使用这种方法，研究人员将得到的结果不仅表明哪些条约在改变国家行为方面是有效的，而且还表明它们在多大程度上这样做，这将允许进行有价值的逐条约比较。 这项研究将包括一些涉及贸易、金融、人权、环境和军备控制问题的最重要的全球条约，这一项目本身的方法创新有助于了解哪些条约行之有效，哪些条约行不通。除此之外，该项目还允许评估哪些类型的条约执行和监督机制对国家行为有较大影响。 例如，研究报告将说明依靠国内法院执行的条约是否比依靠国际法院执行的条约更有效。 此外，该项目还考虑到条约机构与国家特点之间的重要互动。 例如，它可以评估哪类条约对民主国家最有效，哪类条约更有可能改变非民主国家的行为，因此，该项目将作出若干更广泛的贡献。它将增进对条约机构的了解，而这反过来又会大大有利于全球合作的前景。 该项目旨在从理论和经验两方面表明，哪类条约执行和监测机制导致更大程度的条约遵守。 因此，其结果可以指导今后的条约谈判，并表明哪些条约机制在哪些情况下比其他机制更有可能发挥效力。