Studies on Dynamics of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) Complexity

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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major mode of natural climate variability with large global impacts. Despite major progress, basic questions remain unanswered. This project seeks to examine the dynamics of the ENSO phenomenon, including rich variability on spatio-temporal timescales. The three main objectives are: (i) to investigate the physical mechanisms for the so-called central Pacific ENSO and conditions that lead to multiple independent coupled modes of ENSO; (ii) to investigate scale-interactions between ENSO modes and fast variability and to study the impact of these scale interactions on the stability and predictability of the coupled ENSO modes; and (iii) to investigate the physical mechanisms leading to the great spread of ENSO variability in coupled climate change projections (e.g. the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Fourth Assessment, IPCC AR4 simulations) and the underlying mechanisms that control ENSO response to tropical climate changes associated with global warming.The broader impact of this work is high since it has the potential to lead to improved understanding and predictions of ENSO, a phenomenon that has global impacts affecting societies world-wide.