Studies on Dynamics of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) Complexity

ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）复杂性动力学研究

• 批准号: 1034798
• 负责人: Fei-Fei Jin
• 金额: $ 44.83万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-01 至 2015-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1034798&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Studies; Dynamics; ENSO; El; Nino

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major mode of natural climate variability with large global impacts. Despite major progress, basic questions remain unanswered. This project seeks to examine the dynamics of the ENSO phenomenon, including rich variability on spatio-temporal timescales. The three main objectives are: (i) to investigate the physical mechanisms for the so-called central Pacific ENSO and conditions that lead to multiple independent coupled modes of ENSO; (ii) to investigate scale-interactions between ENSO modes and fast variability and to study the impact of these scale interactions on the stability and predictability of the coupled ENSO modes; and (iii) to investigate the physical mechanisms leading to the great spread of ENSO variability in coupled climate change projections (e.g. the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Fourth Assessment, IPCC AR4 simulations) and the underlying mechanisms that control ENSO response to tropical climate changes associated with global warming.The broader impact of this work is high since it has the potential to lead to improved understanding and predictions of ENSO, a phenomenon that has global impacts affecting societies world-wide.

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是自然气候变率的一种主要模式，具有巨大的全球影响。尽管取得了重大进展，但一些基本问题仍未得到解答。该项目旨在研究厄尔尼诺/南方涛动现象的动态，包括时空时间尺度上的丰富可变性。三个主要目标是：㈠调查所谓中太平洋厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的物理机制和导致厄尔尼诺/南方涛动多重独立耦合模式的条件; ㈡调查厄尔尼诺/南方涛动模式与快速变率之间的尺度相互作用，并研究这些尺度相互作用对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动耦合模式的稳定性和可预测性的影响;（iii）在耦合气候变化预测中研究导致ENSO变率大范围传播的物理机制（例如政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估，IPCC AR 4模拟）以及控制ENSO对与全球变暖相关的热带气候变化的反应的潜在机制。这项工作的更广泛影响是高的，因为它具有厄尔尼诺/南方涛动现象具有全球性影响，影响到全世界的社会。