Studies on Dynamics of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) Complexity

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)是一种对全球影响较大的自然气候变异模式。尽管取得了重大进展，但基本问题仍然没有得到回答。该项目试图研究ENSO现象的动力学，包括时空时间尺度上的丰富变异性。这三个主要目标是：(1)研究所谓的中太平洋ENSO的物理机制和导致ENSO多个独立耦合模的条件：(2)研究ENSO模与快速变率之间的尺度相互作用，并研究这些尺度相互作用对ENSO耦合模的稳定性和可预测性的影响；以及(Iii)在两个气候变化预测(例如，政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估，IPCC AR4模拟)中调查导致ENSO可变性大量传播的物理机制，以及控制ENSO对与全球变暖有关的热带气候变化的反应的基本机制。这项工作的更广泛影响很大，因为它有可能导致对ENSO的更好的理解和预测，这是一种具有全球影响的现象，影响世界各地的社会。

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major mode of natural climate variability with large global impacts. Despite major progress, basic questions remain unanswered. This project seeks to examine the dynamics of the ENSO phenomenon, including rich variability on spatio-temporal timescales. The three main objectives are: (i) to investigate the physical mechanisms for the so-called central Pacific ENSO and conditions that lead to multiple independent coupled modes of ENSO; (ii) to investigate scale-interactions between ENSO modes and fast variability and to study the impact of these scale interactions on the stability and predictability of the coupled ENSO modes; and (iii) to investigate the physical mechanisms leading to the great spread of ENSO variability in coupled climate change projections (e.g. the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Fourth Assessment, IPCC AR4 simulations) and the underlying mechanisms that control ENSO response to tropical climate changes associated with global warming.The broader impact of this work is high since it has the potential to lead to improved understanding and predictions of ENSO, a phenomenon that has global impacts affecting societies world-wide.