Further Studies of Dynamics for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity and Complexity

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）动力学多样性和复杂性的进一步研究

• 批准号: 1813611
• 负责人: Fei-Fei Jin
• 金额: $ 60.87万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-15 至 2023-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1813611&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Further; Studies; Dynamics; El; Nino

Results from this renewal project will improve the ability of climate models in predictions of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), its impacts and in projections of future changes in ENSO activity. It is anticipated that the theoretical and methodological techniques that are developed by the Principal Investigator (PI) through this effort will have broad applicability in the climate science community. Dissemination of the scientific results will occur through publications, presentations at conferences and professional meetings, channels of the University of Hawaii, and outreach to the local and broader communities. A graduate student and two early-career scientists will be trained through this project.El Nino/La Nina events that occur every few years are characterized by massive warming/cooling over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean together with weakening/strengthening of trade winds. This strong inter-annual fluctuation of the global climate system is referred to as the ENSO phenomenon. It accompanies by systematic changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulations, affecting global weather and climate systems, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and fisheries, and thereby having a great impact on economics of well-being and people's life. The ENSO phenomenon exhibits rich diversity in its strength, duration and patterns of warming/cooling and in its global impacts. Fundamental issues concerning ENSO remain to be better addressed. For example, whether there exist roughly two groups of ENSO typical patterns, namely the so-called Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino is an active research topic in the scientific community. Furthermore, how influences of ENSO in the tropic Pacific are spread into the highly complex global climate system and ecosystem, remains a question to be better understood. The PI will conduct systematic theoretical, diagnostic, and numerical modeling investigations to achieve the following three objectives: (1) further advancing linear and nonlinear theories for the origins of the ENSO pattern diversity; (2) better understanding of the mechanisms causing ENSO complex temporal evolution and their impacts (3) further investigating the sensitivity of ENSO patterns and temporal characteristics to biases and future changes in tropical climate mean state and in parameters of key physical processes of the climate models. New theoretical approaches will be developed and a model hierarchy ranging from simple to fully coupled Global Climate Models will be adopted to address the outstanding questions and to achieve the three objectives.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这一更新项目的成果将提高气候模式预测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动及其影响和预测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动活动未来变化的能力。预计主要研究员通过这项努力开发的理论和方法技术将在气候科学界具有广泛的适用性。科学成果的传播将通过出版物、在会议和专业会议上的介绍、夏威夷大学的渠道以及对当地和更广泛社区的宣传进行。 厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜现象每隔几年发生一次，其特点是热带太平洋东部大规模升温/降温，信风减弱/加强。全球气候系统的这种强烈的年际波动被称为ENSO现象。它伴随着大气和海洋环流的系统性变化，影响到全球天气和气候系统、海洋和陆地生态系统以及渔业，从而对经济福祉和人民生活产生重大影响。 厄尔尼诺/南方涛动现象在其强度、持续时间和升温/降温模式及其全球影响方面表现出丰富的多样性。 有关厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的基本问题仍有待更好地解决。 例如，是否存在大致两组ENSO的典型模式，即所谓的中太平洋和东太平洋厄尔尼诺现象，是科学界研究的一个活跃课题。 此外，热带太平洋ENSO的影响如何传播到高度复杂的全球气候系统和生态系统中，仍然是一个有待更好理解的问题。 PI将进行系统的理论、诊断和数值模拟研究，以实现以下三个目标：（1）进一步发展ENSO型多样性起源的线性和非线性理论;（2）更好地理解ENSO复杂时间演变的机制及其影响（3）进一步研究ENSO模式和时间特征对热带气候平均状态和气候模型关键物理过程参数的偏差和未来变化的敏感性。 新的理论方法将被开发，从简单到完全耦合的全球气候模型的模型层次将被采用，以解决悬而未决的问题，并实现三个目标。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

项目成果

Decadal Change of Combination Mode Spatiotemporal Characteristics due to an ENSO Regime Shift

ENSO 体系转变导致组合模式时空特征的年代际变化

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0822.1
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Jiang Feng;Zhang Wenjun;Stuecker Malte F.;Jin Fei-Fei
• 通讯作者: Jin Fei-Fei

On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2115599118
• 发表时间: 2021-11-23
• 期刊: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• 影响因子: 11.1
• 作者: Boucharel, Julien;Almar, Rafael;Jin, Fei-Fei
• 通讯作者: Jin, Fei-Fei

Tropical Indo‐Pacific Compounding Thermal Conditions Drive the 2019 Australian Extreme Drought

• DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090323
• 发表时间: 2021-01
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Wenjun Zhang;Wei Mao;Feng Jiang;M. Stuecker;F. Jin;L. Qi

Future Amplification of Sea Surface Temperature Seasonality Due To Enhanced Ocean Stratification

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl098607
• 发表时间: 2022-04
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Anila Rani Jo;June‐Yi Lee;A. Timmermann;F. Jin;R. Yamaguchi;Angeles Gallego

Effective ENSO Amplitude Forecasts Based on Oceanic and Atmospheric Preconditions

基于海洋和大气先决条件的有效 ENSO 振幅预报

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0383.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Xuan, Zhuolin;Zhang, Wenjun;Jiang, Feng;Jin, Fei-Fei
• 通讯作者: Jin, Fei-Fei