Understanding the Multi-year El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Its Dynamics, El Nino-La Nina Asymmetries, and Climate Impacts

了解多年厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO)：其动态、厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜不对称性和气候影响

• 批准号: 2109539
• 负责人: Jin-Yi Yu
• 金额: $ 81.42万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2109539&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Understanding; Multi; year; El; Nino

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most powerful forces affecting Earth’s climate. ENSO events alter atmospheric and oceanic circulations, interrupting normal weather and climate patterns worldwide and impacting socioeconomic activities. Extensive research since the 1970s has produced frameworks capable of explaining the observed properties and impacts of ENSO as well as predictive models. However, the properties and impacts of the ENSO events observed so far in the 21st century have been noticeably different from those observed in the 20th century. There are indications that the duration of ENSO events might have changed, shifting from single-year to multi-year events. Associated with these changes, ENSO’s impacts on global climate may have become different from those documented during the 20th century. The investigator proposes in this research project that the underlying dynamics of the 21st-century ENSO may have become different from those in the 20th century, making its behavior more difficult to predict. The investigator proposes a new dynamical framework and a set of research methodologies to comprehensively examine and better understand the multi-year ENSO and its climate impacts.This project offers a new ENSO dynamic to explain an emerging but not yet well understood aspect of ENSO properties – its multi-year evolutions. Prediction models and strategies can be revised and developed to better predict ENSO events and their climate impacts. Better ENSO predictions will help to improve disaster preparation. The improved understanding of multi-year ENSOs can offer new and different ways to interpret paleoclimate data, which may lead to new insights into the history of Earth's climate and new implications for future climate changes. On the educational side, this project contributes to the training of graduate and undergraduate students enrolled in the rapidly expanding programs of the Earth System Science Department at UC Irvine.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是影响地球气候的最强大的力量之一。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件改变大气和海洋环流，扰乱全球正常的天气和气候模式，影响社会经济活动。1970年代以来的广泛研究产生了能够解释观测到的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动特性和影响的框架以及预测模型。然而，到目前为止，在21世纪观测到的ENSO事件的性质和影响与在20世纪观测到的ENSO事件明显不同。有迹象表明，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件的持续时间可能已经改变，从一年期转变为多年期。与这些变化相联系，ENSO对全球气候的影响可能与世纪的记录有所不同。研究人员在该研究项目中提出，21-世纪ENSO的基本动力可能与20-世纪不同，使其行为更难预测。研究者提出了一个新的动力学框架和一套研究方法，以全面研究和更好地理解多年ENSO及其气候影响。该项目提供了一个新的ENSO动力学，以解释一个新兴的，但尚未得到很好理解的方面ENSO属性-它的多年演变。预测模型和战略可加以修订和发展，以更好地预测厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件及其气候影响。更好的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动预测将有助于改进备灾工作。对多年厄尔尼诺/南方涛动现象的进一步了解可以为解释古气候数据提供新的和不同的方法，这可能导致对地球气候历史的新认识和对未来气候变化的新影响。在教育方面，该项目有助于培养研究生和本科生，这些学生就读于加州大学欧文分校地球系统科学系迅速扩大的项目。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Single- and multi-year ENSO events controlled by pantropical climate interactions

• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-022-00305-y
• 发表时间: 2022-11
• 期刊: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• 影响因子: 9
• 作者: Ji‐Won Kim;Jin‐Yi Yu