Collaborative Research WSC Category 2: Anticipating water scarcity and informing integrative water system response in the Pacific Northwest

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Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Oregon (UO), and Portland State University (PSU) are collaborating on a comprehensive, highly integrated examination of hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic factors in the Willamette River Basin. The team is applying Envision, a theoretical framework developed at OSU, to evaluate how climate change, population growth, and economic growth will alter the availability and the use of water in the Willamette River Basin. Envision provides a computing environment in which state-of-the-art hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic models can interact synergistically. Envision also contains a multi-agent-based modeling component that enables it to represent the impact of human decision-making on landscape change. The team is addressing the following objectives:(1) Identify and quantify the linkages and feedbacks among hydrologic, ecological, and socioeconomic dimensions of the water system.(2) Determine where and when climate change and human activities will create water scarcities.(3) Evaluate a broad range of strategies that could enable this region to prevent, mitigate, or adapt to water scarcities.(4) Create a transferable method of predicting where climate change will create water scarcities in other regions and where those scarcities would exert the strongest impact on human society.The team is collaborating with public officials, resource managers, and other stakeholders with strong interest in protecting ecosystems and water resources. Commissioners from the thirteen counties that make up the Willamette River Basin, as well as representatives of the Governor's Office, the Oregon Water Resources Department, the Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, are involved to help to understand their needs and perspectives, to identify scenarios, and to interpret results. Working with these public officials, the team will help them translate the results of the research into planning and decision making processes.The team is preparing to disseminate Envision through some UNESCO HELP basins. In the outyears, the team will work with the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, to transfer Envision to researchers in UNESCO HELP basins, possibly including the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and the Olifants River in South Africa.