Collaborative Research: Simulations of Anthropogenic Climate Change Using a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework

合作研究：使用多尺度建模框架模拟人为气候变化

• 批准号: 1049057
• 负责人: Andrew Gettelman
• 金额: $ 32.5万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-06-15 至 2014-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049057&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Simulations; Anthropogenic; Climate

Intellectual meritThe primary goal of this project is to conduct and analyze simulations of anthropogenic climate change based on a version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in which the atmosphere and land-surface models are based on "super-parameterization." The principal investigator (PI) and his team will develop and test a community version of this new model configuration to be called the SP-CESM. The effects of moist convection, stratiform cloudiness, radiative transfer, boundary-layer processes, and the land surface will be computed by embedding a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of the SP-CESM. The CRM explicitly accounts for indirect aerosol effects by using the CESM's global aerosol distribution and composition as input to a drop-activation parameterization. The land-surface model, which runs on the CRM's grid, predicts exchanges of latent and sensible heat and CO2 with the global atmosphere, including those due to changes in fine-scale vegetation and land use.The PIs will perform at least one simulation of the pre-industrial climate, at least one of the twentieth century climate, and at least one of the twenty-first century climate based on emissions scenarios developed for use in the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5). Their analysis will focus on improving our understanding and prediction of critical processes and modes of decadal variability in the earth system, the interactions of the land surface hydrology and the atmosphere, and atmospheric cloud processes. These processes impact extreme hydrological cycle events such as droughts, floods, and episodes of extreme precipitation. The PIs will use the model to better understand the feedbacks and changes to interannual and decadal modes of variability, with an eye towards increasing predictive capacity.SP-CESM output will be evaluated against observations, and also compared with the conventional CESM. This project represents an important alternative path forward for climate models and a different perspective than is commonly used for climate simulation. The research has a high probability of significantly enhancing our understanding of climate and its response to anthropogenic perturbations.Broader impactsThe broader impacts of the research are focused around improving predication for society, providing better tools that others can use, and training the next generation of scientists. The core activity of this project is to apply recent research progress to the problem of anthropogenic climate change, in order to help society better understand possible future impacts of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and particulates. Through the CESM project, the PIs' climate model will be released as open source code for other researchers to use and improve in the future. Finally, the PI and his team will be training the next generation of scientists by employing and mentoring graduate students and post-docs.

该项目的主要目标是基于社区地球系统模式（CESM）的一个版本进行和分析人为气候变化的模拟，其中大气和地表模式基于“超级参数化”。“首席研究员（PI）和他的团队将开发和测试这个新模型配置的社区版本，称为SP-CESM。 湿对流，层状云量，辐射传输，边界层过程和陆面的影响将通过嵌入云解析模式（CRM）在SP-CESM的每个网格列计算。 CRM明确占间接气溶胶的影响，通过使用CESM的全球气溶胶分布和组成作为输入液滴激活参数化。 在CRM网格上运行的陆面模式预测了潜热、感热和二氧化碳与全球大气的交换，包括由于细尺度植被和土地利用变化引起的交换。PI将对工业化前气候、20世纪气候、以及至少一个基于供政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估使用的排放情景的21世纪世纪气候。他们的分析将侧重于提高我们的理解和预测的关键过程和地球系统的十年变化模式，陆地表面水文和大气的相互作用，以及大气云过程。 这些过程影响极端的水文循环事件，如干旱、洪水和极端降水事件。 PI将使用该模型更好地了解年际和十年变率模式的反馈和变化，着眼于提高预测能力。SP-CESM输出将根据观测结果进行评估，并与常规CESM进行比较。 该项目代表了气候模型的一个重要替代途径，也代表了一个不同于气候模拟常用的视角。 这项研究很有可能显著增强我们对气候及其对人为扰动的反应的理解。更广泛的影响这项研究的更广泛的影响集中在改善对社会的预测，提供其他人可以使用的更好的工具，以及培训下一代科学家。该项目的核心活动是将最新的研究进展应用于人为气候变化问题，以帮助社会更好地了解人为温室气体和颗粒物排放对未来可能产生的影响。 通过CESM项目，PI的气候模型将作为开源代码发布，供其他研究人员在未来使用和改进。最后，PI和他的团队将通过雇用和指导研究生和博士后来培养下一代科学家。