RAPID: Modeling of Short-Term and Long-Term Marine Mammal Population Trends in the Vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Using Passive Acoustic Monitoring Cues

RAPID：使用被动声学监测线索对深水地平线漏油附近的短期和长期海洋哺乳动物种群趋势进行建模

• 批准号: 1059753
• 负责人: Azmy Ackleh
• 金额: $ 19.22万
• 依托单位: University of Louisiana at Lafayette
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-01 至 2011-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1059753&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Modeling; Short; Term; Long

This is a RAPID proposal to assess the immediate impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on near-by resident populations of endangered whale species (sperm whales and beaked whales) and prediction of the long-term effects of the disaster on their population dynamics using statistical and mathematical modeling. The project includes three components: 1) an acoustic experiment in the vicinity of the incident to collect population estimates data and comparison to similar collected data from previous years; 2) the development of statistical models to quantitatively estimate the population of marine mammals before and after the incident in the vicinity of the disaster; 3) the development of a mathematical model to describe the dynamics of the whale population that will be used to evaluate the long term impact of the spill on whale populations.This project is one of a kind to assess the adverse impact of the BP oil-spill on the marine ecosystem in general, and marine mammal populations of specific species in particular, in and around the oil-impacted area of the Gulf of Mexico. Acoustic data will be collected near the sites where marine mammal phonations were collected by the Littoral Acoustic Demonstration Center in 2001, 2002, 2007 and are as close as 9 miles from the BP oilspill incident site. Therefore, the newly collected data will be unique as we will be able to compare them to the previous data, which will provide base-line estimates of the marine mammal population density. Successful project implementation will provide not only environmental impact assessment of a large-scale oil spill on several species of marine mammals (including endangered sperm whales), but also the foundation for development of a new systematic methodology of population estimation and dynamics based on acoustic cues; this is in contrast with the traditional methodology which is based on visual observations. Thecollected data, which will be useful for ecologists in the future, and the theoretical research associated with the project will shed light on the debate concerning how the Gulf of Mexico has been affected by the oil-spill. This can help the policy makers in the future. This project will not only assess the impact of the BP oil-spill on marine species in the impacted area, but also can work as a paradigm in the future for similar manmade or natural disasters. The proposed research, with a strong theoretical component, will complement other existing and ongoing research on the BP oil-spill. Furthermore, articipating graduate students will receive valuable interdisciplinary training ranging from data analysis to statistical and mathematical modeling of marine mammal population dynamics.

这是一项快速建议，旨在评估深水地平线石油泄漏对附近濒危鲸鱼物种（抹香鲸和喙鲸）的直接影响，并使用统计和数学模型预测灾难对其种群动态的长期影响。该项目包括三个组成部分：（1）在事故发生地附近进行声学实验，以收集数量估计数据，并与往年收集的类似数据进行比较;（2）开发统计模型，以定量估计事故发生前后灾害发生地附近海洋哺乳动物的数量; 3）开发一个数学模型来描述鲸鱼种群的动态，该模型将用于评估泄漏对鲸鱼种群的长期影响。该项目是评估BP石油泄漏的不利影响的一个项目。石油泄漏对墨西哥湾受石油影响地区及其周围的整个海洋生态系统，特别是特定物种的海洋哺乳动物种群的影响。声学数据将在沿岸的声学示范中心于2001年、2002年、2007年收集海洋哺乳动物声音的地点附近收集，距离英国石油公司漏油事件现场9英里。因此，新收集的数据将是独特的，因为我们将能够将它们与以前的数据进行比较，这将提供海洋哺乳动物种群密度的基线估计。项目的成功实施不仅将提供大规模石油泄漏对几种海洋哺乳动物（包括濒危抹香鲸）的环境影响评估，而且还将为制定一种新的系统方法奠定基础，这种方法以声音线索为基础，对种群数量和动态进行估计;这与传统的方法不同，传统的方法以视觉观察为基础。收集的数据，这将是有用的生态学家在未来，与该项目相关的理论研究将阐明有关墨西哥湾如何受到石油泄漏的影响的辩论。这将有助于未来的决策者。该项目不仅将评估BP石油泄漏对受影响地区海洋物种的影响，而且可以作为未来类似人为或自然灾害的范例。拟议中的研究，具有很强的理论组成部分，将补充其他现有的和正在进行的研究对英国石油公司的石油泄漏。此外，参与研究生将接受从数据分析到海洋哺乳动物种群动态的统计和数学建模等宝贵的跨学科培训。