RAPID: Modeling of Short-Term and Long-Term Marine Mammal Population Trends in the Vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Using Passive Acoustic Monitoring Cues

这是一项快速提案，旨在评估深水地平线石油泄漏对附近濒危鲸鱼物种（抹香鲸和喙鲸）的直接影响，并利用统计和数学模型预测灾难对其种群动态的长期影响。该项目包括三个组成部分：1)在事故附近进行声学实验，收集人口估计数据，并与往年收集的类似数据进行比较；2)建立统计模型，定量估计灾前和灾后附近海洋哺乳动物的数量；3)建立一个描述鲸类种群动态的数学模型，该模型将用于评估泄漏对鲸类种群的长期影响。本项目是评估BP石油泄漏对墨西哥湾漏油区及其周围海洋生态系统的总体不利影响，特别是对特定物种的海洋哺乳动物种群的不利影响的项目之一。声学数据将在海岸声学演示中心于2001年、2002年和2007年收集海洋哺乳动物声音的地点附近收集，这些地点距离英国石油公司漏油事故地点最近9英里。因此，新收集的数据将是独一无二的，因为我们将能够将它们与以前的数据进行比较，这些数据将提供海洋哺乳动物种群密度的基线估计。项目的成功实施不仅将提供对几种海洋哺乳动物（包括濒临灭绝的抹香鲸）的大规模石油泄漏的环境影响评估，而且还将为发展一种基于声音线索的种群估计和动态的新的系统方法奠定基础；这与基于视觉观察的传统方法形成对比。收集到的数据将在未来对生态学家有用，与该项目相关的理论研究将阐明有关墨西哥湾如何受到石油泄漏影响的争论。这可以帮助未来的政策制定者。该项目不仅将评估BP石油泄漏对受影响地区海洋物种的影响，而且还可以作为未来类似人为或自然灾害的范例。拟议的研究具有很强的理论成分，将补充其他现有的和正在进行的关于BP石油泄漏的研究。此外，参与的研究生将接受有价值的跨学科培训，从数据分析到海洋哺乳动物种群动态的统计和数学建模。

This is a RAPID proposal to assess the immediate impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on near-by resident populations of endangered whale species (sperm whales and beaked whales) and prediction of the long-term effects of the disaster on their population dynamics using statistical and mathematical modeling. The project includes three components: 1) an acoustic experiment in the vicinity of the incident to collect population estimates data and comparison to similar collected data from previous years; 2) the development of statistical models to quantitatively estimate the population of marine mammals before and after the incident in the vicinity of the disaster; 3) the development of a mathematical model to describe the dynamics of the whale population that will be used to evaluate the long term impact of the spill on whale populations.This project is one of a kind to assess the adverse impact of the BP oil-spill on the marine ecosystem in general, and marine mammal populations of specific species in particular, in and around the oil-impacted area of the Gulf of Mexico. Acoustic data will be collected near the sites where marine mammal phonations were collected by the Littoral Acoustic Demonstration Center in 2001, 2002, 2007 and are as close as 9 miles from the BP oilspill incident site. Therefore, the newly collected data will be unique as we will be able to compare them to the previous data, which will provide base-line estimates of the marine mammal population density. Successful project implementation will provide not only environmental impact assessment of a large-scale oil spill on several species of marine mammals (including endangered sperm whales), but also the foundation for development of a new systematic methodology of population estimation and dynamics based on acoustic cues; this is in contrast with the traditional methodology which is based on visual observations. Thecollected data, which will be useful for ecologists in the future, and the theoretical research associated with the project will shed light on the debate concerning how the Gulf of Mexico has been affected by the oil-spill. This can help the policy makers in the future. This project will not only assess the impact of the BP oil-spill on marine species in the impacted area, but also can work as a paradigm in the future for similar manmade or natural disasters. The proposed research, with a strong theoretical component, will complement other existing and ongoing research on the BP oil-spill. Furthermore, articipating graduate students will receive valuable interdisciplinary training ranging from data analysis to statistical and mathematical modeling of marine mammal population dynamics.