Modeling the transport demand of same day visitors, short vacationers and vacationers in large cities

对大城市的当日游客、短期度假者和度假者的交通需求进行建模

• 批准号: 409499825
• 负责人: Professor Dr.-Ing. Carsten Sommer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Fachgebiet Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrssysteme
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/409499825?language=en
• 关键词: Modeling; transport; demand; same; day

Uncommon leisure traffic constitutes one of the main sources of particulate and NOx-emissions caused in traffic. Uncommon leisure traffic comprises both arrival and departure of same-day visitors and (short) vacationers, and their trips at the destination. In the city of Kassel, for example, visitors already conduct one out of seven trips. Visitors therefore account for approx. 14% of all ways in the city of Kassel. However, this share is likely to be even higher in cities with a predominant tourist orientation. Uncommon leisure traffic in particular has recorded an above-average rise in traffic volume during the last few years which mainly has to be attributed to private cars. A further growth of traffic volume due to (short) vacations and private day trips is expected in the future. Accordingly, the achievement of environmental and climate change objectives is gaining in importance. However, in the field of transportation planning as well as in the area of mobility and tourism research, uncommon leisure traffic has been largely neglected so far, since surveys on mobility behaviour mainly focus on everyday mobility. Accordingly, uncommon leisure traffic has been neglected in model-based traffic forecasts, too.The overall objective of this research project is to develop a universally applicable model-based planning tool that will enhance the quality of model-based traffic forecasts. It will be based on a depiction of uncommon leisure traffic by means of cause-effect correlations. Thus, a model-based investigation of measures concerning uncommon leisure traffic will be made possible. Moreover, the impact of these measures on the environment and traffic can be estimated as well. The following objectives are derived from the abovementioned overall objective:- development of a macroscopic model to depict uncommon leisure traffic, being composed of theoretical model approaches (algorithms) and a corresponding survey concept,- development of an approach for market segments which considers the homogeneity in their behaviour as well as the overall forecasting ability, - exemplary application of the model on two market segments, - gain more detailed knowledge of conclusions on uncommon leisure traffic in big cities, based on literature research, existing data and our own surveys.With the results of this project, it will be possible to influence uncommon leisure traffic more effectively within the field of strategic transportation planning. Since the model is supposed to react sensitively to measures, different measures or packages of measures can be simulated. Also, the impact these measures have after their implementation can be estimated more precisely. Furthermore, both local and touristic decision-makers and administrations will benefit from the expected findings as the results of this project offer important insights into the subject of uncommon leisure traffic.

不常见的休闲交通构成的主要来源之一，颗粒物和NOx的排放量所造成的交通。不常见的休闲交通包括当天的游客和（短期）度假者的到达和离开，以及他们在目的地的行程。例如，在卡塞尔市，游客已经进行了七分之一的旅行。因此，游客约占。卡塞尔市所有道路的14%。然而，在以旅游业为主导的城市，这一比例可能更高。特别是不常见的休闲交通，过去几年的交通量增长高于平均水平，这主要归功于私家汽车。由于（短）假期和私人一日游，预计未来交通量将进一步增长。因此，实现环境和气候变化目标越来越重要。然而，在交通规划领域，以及在流动性和旅游研究领域，不常见的休闲交通一直在很大程度上被忽视，迄今为止，因为对流动行为的调查主要集中在日常流动性。因此，不常见的休闲交通一直被忽视在基于模型的交通预测，too.The研究项目的总体目标是开发一个普遍适用的基于模型的规划工具，将提高基于模型的交通预测的质量。它将基于一个不寻常的休闲交通的因果关系的描述。因此，一个基于模型的调查有关不寻常的休闲交通的措施将成为可能。此外，这些措施对环境和交通的影响也可以估计。以下目标源自上述总体目标：- 开发宏观模型，描述不常见的休闲交通，包括理论模型方法（算法）和相应的调查概念，-开发一种细分市场的方法，考虑其行为的同质性以及整体预测能力，-模型在两个细分市场上的示范应用，-基于文献研究，现有数据和我们自己的调查，获得关于大城市不常见休闲交通结论的更详细的知识。在战略交通规划领域内，将有可能更有效地影响不常见的休闲交通。由于模型应该对措施敏感，因此可以模拟不同的措施或措施包。此外，可以更准确地估计这些措施实施后产生的影响。此外，当地和旅游决策者和管理部门将受益于预期的结果，因为该项目的结果提供了重要的见解不寻常的休闲交通的主题。