Using Michigan Sentencing Guidelines to Estimate Effects of Incarceration and Probation on Reoffending and Employment

使用密歇根量刑指南来估计监禁和缓刑对再犯罪和就业的影响

• 批准号: 1061018
• 负责人: Jeffrey Morenoff
• 金额: $ 27.5万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-06-01 至 2014-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1061018&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Using; Michigan; Sentencing; Guidelines; Estimate

The dramatic increase in the number of people incarcerated in the U.S. over the last three decades raises critical questions regarding the effects of incarceration on criminal behavior and economic opportunity. Empirical research on the impact of prison vs. alternative sanctions like probation often lacks a clear causal interpretation because differences in outcomes between offenders sentenced to prison/jail vs. probation, even for the same offense, may be due to pre-existing and unmeasured differences between these groups that affect both the sentencing decision and the outcome under study. The proposed research aims to provide plausibly causal estimates of the effects of incarceration in prison compared to jail or probation on recidivism and employment using a pair of natural experiments based on sentencing guidelines in Michigan. One design relies on the random assignment of judges to compare offenders who are given different sentences due only to the judge to which they were assigned. The other design exploits discontinuities that emerge from the ways that offenders are officially scored on the two sentencing guidelines variables ? criminal history and offense severity. This analysis compares the outcomes of offenders with very similar scores on either/both sentencing variable(s) who are nonetheless exposed to dramatically different probabilities of incarceration because they are slightly under or over threshold values of each variable. Both designs restrict comparisons to individuals who are eligible for the same types of sentences and who are therefore on the policy margin between prison and alternative sanctions. This project will provide new evidence for policy-makers and actors in the criminal justice system that could inform future decisions on the appropriateness of custodial vs. non-custodial sanctions.

过去三十年来，美国被监禁人数的急剧增加引发了有关监禁对犯罪行为和经济机会影响的关键问题。关于监狱与缓刑等替代制裁的影响的实证研究往往缺乏明确的因果解释，因为被判入狱/监狱与缓刑的罪犯之间的结果差异，即使是同一罪行，也可能是由于这些群体之间预先存在且无法衡量的差异，这些差异影响量刑决定和所研究的结果。 拟议的研究旨在通过基于密歇根州量刑指南的两项自然实验，对监狱监禁与监狱或缓刑相比，对累犯和就业的影响提供合理的因果估计。一种设计依赖于法官的随机分配来比较仅因分配的法官而被给予不同判决的罪犯。另一种设计利用了罪犯在两个量刑指南变量上的官方评分方式中出现的不连续性？犯罪历史和犯罪严重程度。该分析比较了在任一/两个量刑变量上得分非常相似的罪犯的结果，尽管如此，他们面临着截然不同的监禁概率，因为他们略低于或高于每个变量的阈值。这两种设计都限制了与有资格获得相同类型刑罚的个人进行比较，因此这些人处于监狱和替代制裁之间的政策边缘。该项目将为刑事司法系统中的政策制定者和行为者提供新的证据，为未来关于拘留与非拘留制裁是否适当的决定提供信息。