Observations, Reanalyses and Ice Cores: A Synthesis of West Antarctic Climate

REUSCH/0636618该奖项支持一项为期三年的努力，目的是通过研究观测和预报模型数据集，利用非线性技术改善对南极气候的了解；改进和扩大从冰芯数据重建过去南极气候的范围；以及重建观测记录中缺失的数据，可能进入仪器前时代。拟议活动的学术价值源于有机会增进对南极过去、现在和未来气候的了解，南极气候是全球气候系统的一个关键组成部分。自组织映射(SOM)是一种新兴的、强大的非线性工具，将用于将自由大气再分析数据分类为原型模式(SOM状态)。然后，将训练前馈人工神经网络(FF-ANN)，以根据覆盖仪器时代的冰芯数据预测首选的SOM状态。经过训练的FF-ANN将把SOM状态的重建扩展到整个冰芯数据，从而导致长期的气候重建。将通过使用FF-ANN和自由大气再分析数据来填补观测记录中的数据空白，从而改善地面条件的历史。利用上述基于冰芯的大气环流重建，这些记录也可以延伸到仪器出现之前的时代。该项目的更广泛影响涉及与地球和矿物科学博物馆(共设在地球科学大楼内)的活动，这些活动将通过为博物馆的固定和流动的GeoWall显示器开发交互式图形可视化/演示，将项目成果/工具带给更多的受众。学院的一名或多名本科生将参与该项目，并有权在全国会议/讲习班上介绍项目成果。这项工作还将有助于“早期职业”调查员的持续发展，包括在教学、外联、协作等方面继续培养(和完善)相关和有用的技能的机会。

Reusch/0636618This award supports a three-year effort to use nonlinear techniques to improve understanding of Antarctic climate through studies of observational and forecast model data sets; improve and extend reconstructions of past Antarctic climate from ice-core data; and reconstruct data missing from the observational records, potentially into the pre-instrumental era. The intellectual merit of the proposed activity arises from the opportunity to improve understanding of the past, present and future climate of the Antarctic, a key component in the global climate system. Self-organizing maps (SOMs), an emerging, powerful nonlinear tool, will be used to classify free-atmosphere reanalysis data into archetypal patterns (SOM states). Feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-ANNs) will then be trained to predict the preferred SOM states from ice-core data covering the instrumental era. The trained FF-ANNs will extend the reconstructions of SOM states to the full length of the ice core data, leading to long-term reconstruction of climate. Histories of surface conditions will be improved by filling data gaps in observational records using FF-ANNs and free-atmosphere reanalysis data. These records may also be extended into the pre-instrumental era using the above ice-core based reconstructions of the atmospheric circulation. The broader impacts of the project relate to activities with the Earth and Mineral Sciences Museum (co-located in the Geosciences building) which will bring project results/tools to a wider audience through development of interactive graphical visualizations/presentations for the Museum's fixed and traveling GeoWall displays. One or more undergraduates from the College will be involved in the project with an option to also present project results at a national meeting/workshop. The work will also contribute to the continuing development of an "early career" investigator, including the opportunity to continue building (and refining) relevant and useful skills in teaching, outreach, collaboration, etc.