SGER: North Atlantic Climate Variability from a Nonlinear Perspective

SGER：非线性视角下的北大西洋气候变化

• 批准号: 0425592
• 负责人: David Reusch
• 金额: $ 9.03万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-07-01 至 2005-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0425592&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SGER; North; Atlantic; Climate; Variability

This award, under the auspices of the Small Grants for Exploratory Research (SGER) program, will help support the development of a novel set of nonlinear tools and their application to the analysis of a well-known climatic event, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Success of this project could demonstrate the value of nonlinear techniques in paleoclimate studies, reveal strengths and weaknesses of linear versus nonlinear techniques, and contribute to better understanding of variability in climate at time scales of societal interest.The crux of the reason for pursuing this exploratory project is that much paleoclimatic research relies on a strong form of the uniformitarian hypothesis: a short term correlation between a particular sedimentary characteristic and a climatic variable is applied to a longer sedimentary record to reconstruct the climatic variable. The danger in such an approach became apparent the wider science community, when three independent, less-uniformitarian paleothermometers showed that a short-term calibration between mean-annual temperature and stable-isotopic ratios of water in ice underestimated past temperature changes in Greenland by threefold. The researcher and his colleagues suggest that one way to improve confidence in such analyses is to follow a completely independent uniformitarian analysis pathway and compare results. The statistical tools used commonly in uniformitarian paleoclimatic analyses are linear. Robust nonlinear "neural network" techniques have been developed in diverse fields, and the researcher has assembled appropriate nonlinear tools and applied them to reconstruction of paleoclimatic conditions in West Antarctica. The strategy is to apply these tools to one of the classic paleoclimatic problems: reconstruction of the history of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). He will assess whether the nonlinear techniques do a better job in reconstructing this important climatic feature in validation intervals, and whether new insights are provided. If, as he and his colleagues suspect, the new techniques are better in the validation interval, then the longer NAO history they produce will be of use in broader studies, and differences between it and previous reconstructions will provide one estimate of the uncertainty in paleoclimatic research.The broader importance of the proposed research is far reaching because if the researchers are successful, they will provide a new tool for improving the confidence of paleoclimatic reconstructions.

根据小型探索性研究（SGER）计划的主持，该奖项将有助于支持开发一套新型的非线性工具，并将其应用于分析众所周知的气候事件，即北大西洋奥西尔（NAO）。该项目的成功可以证明非线性技术在古气候研究中的价值，揭示了线性和非线性技术的优势和弱点，并有助于更好地理解社会利益的时间范围的气候变异性。为这项探索性项目的特殊形式介绍了一项典型的序列形式，而典型的序列是相同的，这是一个典型的序列形式，即相同的序列型，是一定形式的，是一定的。气候变量应用于更长的沉积记录，以重建气候变量。这种方法中的危险变得更加广泛，当时三个独立的，均不均匀的较不统一的古热量计表明，冰层中的均值温度与稳定的同位物质比在冰上低估了格陵兰岛的过去温度变化的短期校准，三倍。 研究人员及其同事认为，提高对此类分析的信心的一种方法是遵循完全独立的统一分析途径并比较结果。统一的古气候分析中通常使用的统计工具是线性的。强大的非线性“神经网络”技术已经在不同的领域开发，研究人员已经组装了适当的非线性工具，并将其应用于南极西部的古气候条件。策略是将这些工具应用于经典的古气候问题之一：北大西洋振荡历史（NAO）的重建。他将评估非线性技术在重建这一重要气候特征的验证间隔以及是否提供新见解方面是否有效。如果正如他和他的同事所怀疑的那样，新技术在验证间隔中越好，那么他们产生的NAO历史将会在更广泛的研究中使用，并且在更广泛的研究中差异，并且在古呼应研究中的不确定性提供了一个不确定性的估计。拟议研究的广泛重要性是遥远的研究人员，因为他们将为您提供一项成功的启动，因此可以改进一个新的工具，因此可以改进一个新的工具。