Collaborative Research: Decoding & Predicting Greenland's Surface Melt History & Future with Observations, Regional Atmospheric Modeling and GCMs

合作研究：解码

• 批准号: 1304849
• 负责人: David Reusch
• 金额: $ 41.15万
• 依托单位: New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1304849&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Decoding; & Predicting

The investigators plan a three-year effort to improve understanding and prediction of surface melting on the Greenland ice sheet. Satellite remote-sensing, regional climate modeling and nonlinear analysis techniques will be used to: assess variability of observed surface melt occurrence; benchmark model-based melt proxies versus observed melt; diagnose synoptic-scale meteorological/sea-ice controls on melt; and assess future change in melt proxies based on regional models driven by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Understanding surface melt on polar ice sheets is important because surface melt affects albedo, can produce useful paleoclimatic records, contributes to mass balance through runoff, and is a trigger for ice-shelf collapse leading to ice-flow acceleration and sea-level rise. Improved understanding of the synoptic-meteorological causes of melting, and of the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate melting accurately, would help assess the effects of future warming on melting, ice-sheet flow and sea level rise. The investigators propose three main research themes to help address these issues: (1) regional-atmospheric-model skill assessments and diagnosis of present synoptic controls on surface melt; (2) application of results from the model skill assessments to GCM-based climate scenarios for estimates of future change; and (3) expanding satellite-based retrieval of surface melt state characterization through retrieval of melt magnitude using a novel fusion of passive microwave and optical/thermal satellite data. In addition to addressing key questions relating Greenland ice sheet balance to sea-level change, the project includes outreach to the public, primarily through a web site, and numerous educational impacts. The project would support undergraduate and graduate students, and involves investigators from a primarily undergraduate institution with a significant population of first-generation college students, and from a Hispanic-serving institution. All data and model results will be archived and made available through the ACADIS data center.

调查人员计划为三年的努力提高对格陵兰冰盖表面融化的理解和预测。卫星遥感，区域气候建模和非线性分析技术将用于：评估观察到的表面熔体发生的变异性；基于基准模型的熔体代理与观察到的熔体；诊断熔体上的天气级气象/海冰控制；并根据CMIP5驱动的区域模型（耦合模型比较项目阶段5）一般循环模型（GCMS）评估熔体代理的未来变化。了解极地冰盖上的表面熔体很重要，因为表面熔体会影响反照率，可以产生有用的古气候记录，通过径流导致质量平衡，并且是造成冰壳崩溃的触发，导致冰流加速和海平面上升。对融化的天气状态原因以及最先进模型准确模拟融化的能力的理解有助于评估未来变暖对融化，冰单流动和海平面上升的影响。研究人员提出了三个主要的研究主题，以帮助解决这些问题：（1）区域 - 大气模型技能评估和表面熔体当前概要控制的诊断； （2）将模型技能评估的结果应用于基于GCM的气候场景，以估算未来变化； （3）使用被动微波和光学/热卫星数据的新型融合，通过检索熔体幅度来扩大基于卫星的表面熔体表征的检索。除了解决格陵兰冰盖平衡与海平面变化有关的关键问题外，该项目还包括向公众推广，主要是通过网站和许多教育影响。该项目将支持本科生和研究生，并参与主要是本科机构的调查人员，其中大量第一代大学生以及来自西班牙裔服务机构。所有数据和模型结果将通过Acadis数据中心存档并提供。